Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain range-bound fluctuations. Although the demand side is supported by the sales volume of new energy vehicles, cautious downstream procurement and suspended logistics limit trading activity. The supply side has stable lithium ore but a short-term transportation bottleneck leads to a tight supply pattern, and continuous inventory depletion provides bottom support. Overall, the market sentiment is neutral, with holiday factors dominating short-term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and the release of restocking demand after the holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On February 12, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at 149,420 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 840 yuan or 0.56% from 150,260 yuan/ton on February 11. The basis strengthened to -10,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 840 yuan or a 7.33% rise [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: The position of the main contract decreased from 356,531 lots on February 11 to 353,975 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots or a 0.72% decline. The trading volume decreased from 351,877 lots to 304,798 lots, a decrease of 47,079 lots or a 13.38% decline [1]. 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The overall supply of lithium ore is stable, with the market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remaining unchanged. However, logistics suspension restricts raw material transportation, and although the salt plant's operating rate remains high, short-term incremental supply is limited. Yahua Group's lithium ore self - sufficiency rate has increased, but the newly put - into - production projects have not yet formed large - scale supply, so the overall supply side is tight [2]. - Demand Side: Downstream demand is differentiated. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth of new energy vehicle sales has driven up the prices of cathode materials. However, the release of newly built battery production capacity is limited, the cell prices are stable, and downstream procurement is cautious, with moderate demand momentum [2]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 107,482 physical tons on January 30 to 105,463 physical tons on February 6, a decrease of 2,019 tons or a 1.88% decline, continuing the de - stocking trend. The inventory decline reflects accelerated downstream digestion, and combined with the Spring Festival factor, the enterprise's production - based - on - sales strategy suppresses inventory accumulation [2]. 1.3 Price Trend Judgment Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The demand side is supported by new energy vehicle sales, but cautious downstream procurement and suspended logistics limit trading activity. The supply side has stable lithium ore but a short - term transportation bottleneck leads to a tight supply pattern, and continuous inventory depletion provides bottom support. The overall market sentiment is neutral, with holiday factors dominating short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and the release of restocking demand after the holiday [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On February 12, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 149,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 840 yuan or 0.56% from February 11. The basis was - 10,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 840 yuan or 7.33%. The main contract position was 353,975 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots or 0.72%. The main contract trading volume was 304,798 lots, a decrease of 47,079 lots or 13.38%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 138,800 yuan/ton. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged at 14,155 yuan/ton and 7,900 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 125,000 yuan/ton. The price of power ternary materials increased from 174,600 yuan/ton to 176,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan or 0.80%. The price of power lithium iron phosphate increased from 50,620 yuan/ton to 51,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,090 yuan or 2.15% [5]. - From January 30 to February 6, 2026, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 87.14%. The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 107,482 physical tons to 105,463 physical tons, a decrease of 2,019 tons or 1.88%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased from 6.15 yuan/piece to 6.25 yuan/piece, an increase of 0.10 yuan or 1.63%. The prices of 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - packed ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, and cobalt - acid lithium cells remained unchanged [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.1 Spot Market Quotations On February 12, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 142,168 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3,685 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 138,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 142,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4,500 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 135,000 - 143,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 139,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4,500 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate futures main contract maintained range - bound fluctuations on the day, with an intraday increase of 3.66% and the disk price ranging from 146,000 yuan/ton to 152,400 yuan/ton. The position decreased by about 2,600 lots compared with the previous trading day. With the gradual suspension of logistics, downstream material factories have basically completed their February stockpiling, and most enterprises have turned to a wait - and - see attitude, with only a few engaging in late - point - price closing and sporadic purchases. Overall, market inquiries and transactions are relatively light [6]. 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on February 11, from February 1 to 8, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 119,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 41%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 715,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. From February 1 to 8, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 39% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 989,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1% [7]. 3.3 Industry News - On January 22, the cobalt intermediate product market maintained a relatively strong pattern. On the supply side, some overseas mining enterprises were bullish on the future market and conducted centralized procurement in the domestic market at a price of about 25.5 US dollars/pound, exacerbating the shortage of spot goods. Driven by this, the high - end domestic market quotations have increased to 26 US dollars/pound. On the demand side, the continuous rise in raw material prices has further narrowed the profit margin of smelters, and enterprises have mostly returned to the rigid - demand procurement model. In terms of policy, it is reported that the export process of non - pilot enterprises is progressing steadily, and it is expected that most of the quotas in January 2026 can be successfully exported. However, considering the overall tight market liquidity and the about three - month transportation cycle from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to China, the structurally tight supply pattern of cobalt intermediate products is difficult to fundamentally reverse before the large - scale arrival of raw materials in April, and prices still have upward driving force [8][9]. - On January 16, Yahua Group stated on the investor interaction platform that its lithium ore project in Zimbabwe has shipped lithium ore back to China in batches and used it for relevant production, and its lithium ore self - sufficiency rate is expected to increase. The company also said that it is still actively promoting the inspection of high - quality lithium resources at home and abroad and will follow the principles of "multi - dimensional demonstration, full - process research, and prudent decision - making" to promote relevant work. As of November 2025, Yahua Group had formed a diversified channel layout of self - controlled mines and purchased mines, establishing a relatively complete lithium resource guarantee system [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [10][12][14][16][18][19][22][23].
碳酸锂日报：碳酸锂窄幅区间运行，重点关注春节后需求表现-20260213
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2026-02-13 13:22