铜日报：铜价高位波动，春节期间关注美元可能的走强风险-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation range of 100,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks. The supply is relatively stable or slightly increasing, the demand is significantly weakened due to the Spring Festival holiday, and the inventory is continuously accumulating [3][51][53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On February 12, 2026, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to 102,770 yuan/ton, a 0.75% increase from the previous day. The basis weakened overall, with the premium copper's discount deepening to - 45 yuan/ton, the flat - water copper maintaining a - 70 yuan/ton discount, and the wet - process copper's discount slightly narrowing to - 120 yuan/ton. The LME(0 - 3) discount remained at - 76.01 US dollars/ton [1][36]. - Position and Trading Volume: The position volume slightly increased, with the LME copper position increasing by 893 lots to 326,184 lots on February 11, 2026. The trading volume significantly shrank as the Spring Festival holiday approached, and the market participation decreased [1]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The supply is relatively stable but has potential disturbances. South America may become a new center for the critical mineral supply chain, and CopperTech Metal Company is applying new technologies to improve the exploration efficiency of the Konkola mine. However, the termination of the merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore may affect global copper resource competition. The domestic anode copper operating rate dropped by 27.90 percentage points to 38.98% due to the Spring Festival holiday, and smelting activities slowed down [2]. - Demand Side: The demand significantly weakened, mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday. New orders in the downstream power, construction, and automotive fields cooled down, the brass rod operating rate decreased by 6.09 percentage points to 40.31%, and the enameled wire operating rate dropped by 10.27 percentage points to 73.53%. The markets in Shandong and North China entered the holiday state, logistics was suspended, and the procurement demand was weak, with the recycled copper rod quotation discount widening to 1,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory Side: The inventory continued to accumulate, reflecting a loose supply - demand situation. The LME inventory increased to 187,179 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased to 196,650 tons. There was a significant increase in inventory in Shanghai due to the arrival of goods during the opening of the import window and the weakening demand [2]. Price Trend Judgment - The copper price is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side changes show that short - term smelting activities slow down due to the Spring Festival, but inventory accumulation and new technology applications may relieve the tightness. The demand - side changes indicate that the downstream demand remains weak during the holiday, and it will take time for post - holiday resumption of work, resulting in a lag in demand recovery. From the perspective of macro sentiment, supply - chain adjustments provide medium - to - long - term support, but the market sentiment is cautious during the holiday [3].