Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core Viewpoints - In Q4 2025, the bond market showed a weak and volatile pattern. The performance of pure - bond funds improved overall. Short - term bond funds' scale recovered significantly under the dominant leveraged carry strategy, passive index bond funds' scale increased significantly due to institutional year - end volume - boosting, and hybrid secondary bond funds continued to expand rapidly due to the expected strong equity market. Bond funds adopted conservative strategies in terms of leverage and duration, focusing on coupon strategies and emphasizing the safety of credit assets. Money funds continued to grow in scale driven by both retail and institutional ends, with the 7 - day annualized average yield approaching 1% [189]. - Looking forward, the bond market pricing factors are favorable in February, but there is no new trend - setting factor. It is expected that the bond market will remain in a range - bound and slightly downward - fluctuating market. In March, insurance usually increases its entry, and from the end of March to early April, wealth management will continue to reserve assets for the second - quarter allocation, which may further catalyze the bond market. Attention should be paid to the potential concentrated redemptions of hybrid secondary bond funds due to increased equity market volatility. Also, it is possible to pay attention to the allocation market of 3 - 5 - year key - term credit bonds in Q1 2026 [192]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025, What are the Bond - Allocation Preferences of "Fixed - Income +" Funds? - Growth Phases of "Fixed - Income +" Funds: "Fixed - Income +" funds experienced two rounds of growth from 2016 - 2025, with hybrid secondary bond funds being the main growth driver. From 2019 - 2021, due to the transformation of bank wealth management to net - value products under the new asset - management regulations, the scale of hybrid primary and secondary bond funds increased from 51.61 billion yuan and 26.18 billion yuan at the end of 2019 to 66.52 billion yuan and 101.26 billion yuan respectively. In the second half of 2025, driven by the "anti - involution" market and the expiration of large - scale fixed - deposits, the scale of hybrid primary and secondary bond funds increased from 74.80 billion yuan and 69.35 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 83.70 billion yuan and 158.10 billion yuan respectively, with a total scale of 2.4 trillion yuan [14]. - Bond - Allocation Preferences: In terms of variety, the proportion of interest - rate bonds in pure - bond assets of hybrid bond funds increased significantly in 2025, and the proportion of convertible bonds decreased. As of Q4 2025, the top - held bonds of hybrid primary and secondary bond funds were interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, convertible bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit, accounting for 43.6%, 28.9%, 26.9%, and 0.7% respectively. In bond structure, interest - rate bonds were mainly policy - bank bonds, and credit bonds were mainly Tier 2 capital bonds. In terms of duration, Treasury bonds showed a dumbbell - shaped characteristic, local government bonds preferred maturities over 10 years, and the rest of the varieties were mainly medium - and short - term with maturities within 5 years. In terms of credit rating, industrial bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds were concentrated in high - grade bonds above AA +, and urban investment bonds focused on short - term credit risk - taking to explore coupon value [16][20][29]. 2. Q4 Bond Funds: Scale and Performance of Pure - Bond Funds Recovered, and "Fixed - Income +" Products Remained Highly Prosperous (1) Asset Scale: The Suppression of the Bond Market by the Rising Equity Market Eased, and the Bond Fund Scale Increased by 429.4 Billion Yuan - Overall Scale: In Q4 2025, the bond fund scale increased by 429.4 billion yuan quarter - on - quarter to 11.12 trillion yuan. The total number of bond funds was 3,993, accounting for 29.32% of all funds. The net issuance of bond funds in Q4 was 57, and the asset net value increased by 429.4 billion yuan to 11.12 trillion yuan. The total share increased by 180.6 billion shares [33]. - Scale by Type: The scale of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds continued to decline, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 2.63%. The scale of short - term pure - bond funds increased slightly, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.34%. The scale of primary bond funds decreased, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 2.09%. The scale of secondary bond funds continued to expand significantly, with a year - on - year growth rate of 19.71%. The scale of passive index bond funds increased significantly, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.62% [38][39][40]. (2) Subscription and Redemption: The Redemption Pressure of Pure - Bond Funds Eased, and the Subscription Sentiment of Secondary Bond Funds Remained High - Pure - Bond Funds: The redemption pressure of pure - bond funds eased in Q4 2025. The net subscription ratios of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term bond funds, and passive index bond funds increased by 6.96, 19.21, and 31.12 percentage points respectively to 34.09%, 39.09%, and 53.64% [54]. - Secondary Bond Funds: Benefiting from the high - level risk preference of the equity market and the allocation cost - effectiveness of stocks relative to bonds, the overall subscription sentiment of secondary bond funds was stronger than that of pure - bond funds. The net subscription ratio of secondary bond funds increased by 1.43 percentage points to 50.41%, and the median net subscription - redemption rate increased slightly to around 0.00% [55]. (3) Performance: The Return of Bond Funds Declined to 1.63%, and the Income of Pure - Bond Funds Improved Significantly - Overall Performance: In Q4 2025, the annualized return of bond funds decreased by 0.52 percentage points quarter - on - quarter to 1.63%. The performance ranking of pure - bond funds was medium - and long - term pure - bond funds (1.94%) > primary bond funds (1.83%) ≈ passive index bond funds (1.83%) > short - term pure - bond funds (1.70%) > secondary bond funds (0.43%) [59]. - Performance by Type: The yields of pure - bond funds changed from a sharp decline in Q3 to a narrow - range fluctuation, and the medium - and long - term pure - bond funds and passive index funds turned positive. The yields of "Fixed - Income +" funds decreased quarter - on - quarter due to the weakening and increased volatility of the equity market [59]. (4) Leverage Ratio: The Bond Market Sentiment was Cautious, and the Leverage Ratio Declined to 115.57% - Overall Leverage: In Q4 2025, the overall leverage ratio of bond funds decreased by 0.26 percentage points to around 115.57%. The weighted average leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds and passive index bond funds decreased slightly, while those of the rest of the bond funds increased slightly [64]. - Leverage by Type: The weighted average leverage ratio of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds was about 119.68%, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.23 percentage points; that of short - term pure - bond funds was 111.95%, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 0.94 percentage points; that of primary bond funds was 117.21%, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 3.45 percentage points; that of secondary bond funds was 111.58%, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.94 percentage points; and that of passive index bond funds was 107.28%, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.16 percentage points [64]. (5) Weighted Average Duration of Top - Held Bonds: Concerns about the Supply - Demand Pattern of Ultra - Long - Term Bonds Increased, and the Duration Declined to 2.75 Years - Overall Duration: In Q4 2025, under multiple pressures such as tightened fund regulation, weakened expectations of monetary easing, and increased pressure on the supply - demand structure of ultra - long - term bonds, the weighted average duration of the top 5 held bonds of bond funds decreased by 0.17 years to 2.75 years [67]. - Duration by Type: The average durations of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds and passive index bond funds decreased, while those of the rest of the bond funds changed little. The average duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds decreased by 0.24 years to 2.56 years; that of short - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.04 years to 0.95 years; the weighted average duration of primary bond funds in hybrid bond funds increased by 0.06 years to 3.25 years; that of secondary bond funds remained unchanged at 3.90 years; and that of passive index bond funds decreased by 0.51 years to 3.18 years [67]. (6) Asset Allocation: The Bond Position Increased Significantly, and the Relative Proportion of Credit Bonds Rose - Asset Allocation by Type: In Q4 2025, bond funds mainly increased their holdings of bonds, with a total increase of 404.4 billion yuan. The proportion of bonds held by bond funds decreased by 0.64 percentage points to 94.24%, the proportion of stocks increased by 0.25 percentage points to 1.95%, the proportion of bank deposits increased by 0.28 percentage points to 1.31%, and the proportion of other assets increased by 0.11 percentage points to 2.50% [83]. - Bond - Category Asset Allocation: In Q4 2025, the bond - holding assets of bond funds increased by 404.4 billion yuan to 11.97 trillion yuan. The coupon strategy was better than the duration strategy, the proportion of credit bonds increased, and the proportion of interest - rate bonds decreased significantly. Bond funds increased their holdings of credit bonds by 516.4 billion yuan, with the proportion increasing by 2.57 percentage points to 54.02%, and decreased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, with the proportion decreasing by 2.69 percentage points to 39.58% [106]. - Credit Rating of Top - Held Bonds: Overall, the credit rating of urban investment bonds held by bond funds decreased moderately, while the high - grade nature of top - held industrial bonds remained unchanged. Marginally, in Q4, both urban investment bonds and industrial bonds showed an obvious trend of concentration towards AAA - grade bonds. By type, the risk preference of institutions decreased. Pure - bond funds increased their allocation to AAA - grade bonds while obtaining coupons through partial credit risk - taking. In the context of the high - level volatility of the equity market, urban investment bonds in hybrid secondary bond funds showed an obvious trend of concentration towards AA + - grade bonds [125][126]. 3. Q4 Money Funds: Some Broker - Affiliated Products were Liquidated, and the Scale Continued to Reach New Highs (1) Traditional Money Funds: The Scale of Money Funds Continued to Reach New Highs, and the Yield Declined to Approach 1% - Asset Scale: At the end of Q4 2025, the number of traditional money funds decreased by 6 to 352. The total scale of money funds increased by 344.7 billion yuan to 14.99 trillion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 2.35% [145]. - Subscription and Redemption: In Q4 2025, 47.56% of money funds had net subscriptions, a slightly lower proportion compared to Q3. Retail - oriented money funds maintained positive subscriptions, and institutional - oriented money funds' subscription willingness recovered [148][152]. - Performance: In Q4 2025, the 7 - day annualized average yield of money funds was 1.11%, which was at a historically low level. The 7 - day annualized yield of Yu'E Bao and WeChat Wealth Management decreased to around 1.0% [156]. - Leverage Ratio and Duration: In Q4 2025, the average leverage ratio of money funds increased by 1.26 percentage points to 106.48%, and the average remaining maturity increased by 4.02 days to 88.73 days [160]. - Deviation: In Q4 2025, the absolute - value average of the deviation of money funds was basically the same as that in Q3, and the number of money funds with a negative minimum deviation decreased by 37 to 116, indicating that the negative - deviation risk was relatively controllable [165]. - Asset Allocation: In Q4 2025, money funds mainly increased their holdings of bonds and bank deposits and decreased their holdings of repurchase agreements. In terms of bond - category asset allocation, money funds mainly increased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and policy - bank bonds [170][172]. (2) Floating - Net - Value Money Funds: The Scale Decreased Slightly, with an Increase in Bank Deposits and a Decrease in Bonds - Scale: At the end of Q4 2025, the scale of floating - net - value money funds decreased slightly. The total assets of 6 floating - net - value money funds were 18.479 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 3.82% [177]. - Leverage and Duration: The average leverage ratio of floating - net - value money funds increased by 0.18 percentage points to 101.91%, which was lower than that of traditional money funds. The average remaining maturity increased to 55.17 days, still significantly lower than that of traditional money funds [178][179]. - Asset Allocation: In Q4 2025, floating - net - value money funds mainly decreased their holdings of bonds and increased their holdings of bank deposits. In terms of bond - category asset allocation, they mainly decreased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased their holdings of policy - bank bonds [179]. - Performance: In Q4 2025, the average annualized yield of floating - net - value money funds increased by 0.04 percentage points quarter - on - quarter to 1.27% [180]. 4. Main Conclusions: In Q4, Bond Funds Reduced Leverage and Shortened Duration, Focused on Coupon Strategies, and Emphasized Safety - In Q4 2025, the bond market showed a weak and volatile pattern. The performance of pure - bond funds improved overall, short - term bond funds' scale recovered significantly, passive index bond funds' scale increased due to institutional volume - boosting, and hybrid secondary bond funds continued to expand rapidly. Bond funds adopted conservative strategies in terms of leverage and duration, emphasizing coupon strategies and the safety of credit assets. Money funds continued to grow in scale driven by both retail and institutional ends, with the 7 - day annualized average yield approaching 1% [189]. - Looking forward, the bond market may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in February. In March, the bond market may have further catalytic opportunities. Attention should be paid to the potential concentrated redemptions of hybrid secondary bond funds due to increased equity market volatility, and it is possible to pay attention to the allocation market of 3 - 5 - year key - term credit bonds in Q1 2026 [192].
——债基、货基2025Q4季报解读：\固收+\规模放量，偏好哪类债券？
Huachuang Securities·2026-02-13 13:43