银铂军工刚需确立：大国博弈重塑贵金属

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, silver has a hedging property, and military demand is expected to grow continuously with the great - power game. The current structural tightness of the silver spot supports the short - term price. After a pullback, the risk - reward ratio is evident. It is expected that the annual high point is difficult to return, and there is a chance of a downward trend in the second quarter. In the medium and long term, the price center of silver will move up. [3] - Comparing platinum and palladium, platinum has more room for price increase. Platinum has both the irreplaceability of military rigid demand and emerging applications in industrial fields such as commercial aerospace and hydrogen energy, with a more diversified and rigid demand structure. Palladium's demand is mainly concentrated in the automotive catalytic field, and its demand growth has obvious uncertainty due to the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles. [3] - In the future, under the multiple backgrounds of the continuation of the global loose liquidity expectation, the normalization of geopolitical conflicts, the continuous release of military rigid demand, and the difficulty in alleviating the rigid constraints on the supply side, the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to rise continuously. [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. The New Normal of Great - Power Game - The Fragmented Pattern Brought by National Resource Nationalism - Since the beginning of 2026, driven by American national resource nationalism, the global geopolitical and external environment has shown the characteristics of the normalization of great - power game, the fragmentation of the global order, and the weaponization of the rule system, forming a fragmented pattern centered on "America First". [7] - The shift from multilateralism to bilateralism in the global order has accelerated. Resource protection and camp fragmentation have led to continuous conflicts and the general rise of commodity prices. The United States has broken the post - World War II international governance system, and the authority of traditional multilateral mechanisms such as the United Nations has been continuously weakened. [8] - The great - power game has been upgraded to security competition and camp confrontation, driving the global arms race into a new round of acceleration. Platinum and silver have become irreplaceable core materials in the military industry chain, and their demand is strongly related to the geopolitical pattern and the intensity of the arms race. [9] 2. Military Silver Enters the Era of Rigid Demand 2.1 Silver's Military Application Scenarios - Electronic System: In military equipment, silver is mainly used in electronic and electrical systems, such as in the form of silver - plated connectors, conductive surface coatings, etc. In missile guidance systems, silver can reduce transmission losses and ensure stable signal transmission. In military communication equipment and aerospace, silver can also improve the reliability of signal transmission. For example, a Tomahawk missile contains about 10 - 15 ounces (0.31 - 0.47 kg) of silver. [11][12][15] - Energy and Power System: In military equipment, silver is used in high - power - density batteries and solar panels. Silver - zinc batteries are used in underwater weapons and main surface warships' weapon systems. For example, a single MK45 seawater - activated torpedo battery contains about 137 kg of silver equivalent. In satellite solar panels, although space - grade solar cells currently mainly use materials such as gold, titanium, and platinum, low - cost alternatives such as silicon - based batteries and perovskite batteries are emerging. [19][20][21] - Special Materials and Coatings: Silver can be used as an electromagnetic shielding material in stealth materials, and silver ions can be used in antibacterial and water - purification components in military equipment. [25] 2.2 Historical Military Silver Consumption - In the 1976 - 1978 fiscal years, the annual average military silver consumption in the United States was about 3.5 million ounces (about 109 tons/year), and in the wartime scenario, it was about 38.4 million ounces (about 1194 tons/year). [26] - By quantifying and summing up the silver consumption in missiles, satellites, and batteries, it is estimated that the military silver consumption from 2020 - 2024 was about 510 tons, and in 2024, it accounted for 1.4% of the global annual silver demand. It is expected that the military silver consumption in 2025 and 2026 will be 548 tons and 564 tons respectively. [30] 3. Platinum's Military Use Has Strategic Rigidity 3.1 Platinum's Military Application Scenarios - Key Components of Military Equipment: In missile infrared guidance systems, platinum can improve the recognition accuracy and anti - interference ability of target heat sources. In radar and electronic warfare equipment, platinum coatings can reduce signal transmission losses. In naval ships and armored vehicles, platinum alloys can resist corrosion and improve wear resistance. In nuclear military equipment, platinum can be used in control rod components or the shells of nuclear radiation detectors. [35][37] - Core Components of Aerospace Engines: Platinum catalysts in military aircraft fuel combustion systems can improve combustion efficiency, reduce fuel consumption, and meet emission requirements. They can also reduce carbon deposition and infrared radiation signals. [38][39] - Space Propulsion Systems and Spacecraft Equipment: Platinum is used in liquid rocket engines to trigger the decomposition of hydrogen peroxide propellants, in spacecraft small thrusters as electrode materials, in space solar cell electrode coatings, and in spacecraft thermal control systems. [43] 3.2 Platinum's Core Application Scenarios in the Military Field Have Strong Irreplaceability - Although there is no accurate data on the specific platinum consumption in application scenarios, it is estimated that the platinum consumption of a single military aircraft engine may exceed 500 grams. Platinum's applications in military and aerospace fields are irreplaceable, such as in rocket propellant decomposition, military aircraft engine hot - end protection, etc. [47][48][49] 3.3 Palladium's Military Application Degree Is Affected by Its Own Characteristics and Is Relatively Low - Palladium is mainly used as an auxiliary functional material in military and aerospace fields, with fewer application scenarios than platinum. Due to its performance limitations, such as a lower melting point and susceptibility to sulfur poisoning, it is difficult to replace platinum in core military scenarios. [53] 4. Historical Review of Local Wars and Views on Silver and Platinum Assets - After reviewing the price fluctuations of precious metals in the two months after the outbreak of 7 wars since 1970, it is found that gold rose 4 times and fell 3 times, silver rose 2 times and fell 5 times. For platinum and palladium, data since 1980 shows that platinum fell 5 times and palladium fell 4 times in the 6 wars. [54] - Historically, gold mostly rose during geopolitical conflicts, and silver mostly fell slightly but had significant increases in two cases. Silver has a certain hedging property, and its military demand is expected to grow if the new cold - war pattern of great - power conflicts continues. [54] - In the short term, the price of silver is affected by the structural tightness of the spot. It is expected that the high point this year is difficult to return, and there is a chance of a downward trend in the second quarter. In the medium and long term, the price center of silver will move up. [55] - In the past, the short - term performance of platinum and palladium in the market was more like industrial metals, with prices under pressure due to the impact of war on the real economy. However, since 2025, the pricing logic of the platinum - palladium market has changed, forming a multi - dimensional pricing system. The prices of platinum and palladium are expected to rise further. [58][61][62]