天然橡胶产区系列报告（六）：柬埔寨：产能演进、需求重构与地缘冲突复盘

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cambodia's rubber supply is expected to increase slightly, and the reconstruction of its downstream processing industry chain does not affect global rubber demand, so it is bearish for rubber prices [2][94][95] - Attention can be paid to the fluctuation opportunities of periodic conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, but it is necessary to grasp the trading main line and take timely profit - taking for long positions [2][93][95] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cambodia Rubber Producing Area Supply - Demand Status and Future Development Trends 3.1.1 Producing Area Basic Overview: Resource Endowment and Industry Positioning - Agriculture is one of the pillar industries of Cambodia's economy, and natural rubber is regarded as an important strategic crop. The Cambodian government hopes that the rubber industry will bring sustainable benefits to all stakeholders [4] - Cambodia is located in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula in Asia, with a tropical monsoon climate suitable for rubber growth. The top four rubber - producing provinces in 2023 accounted for 67.89% of the planting area [5] - The earliest rubber planting in Cambodia dates back to 1910. After independence, the rubber planting industry reached its peak in 1967. After being damaged by the civil war, it gradually recovered. Currently, Cambodia is the seventh - largest rubber - producing country [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - Supply: The rubber production in Cambodia grew rapidly from 2010 - 2020, with an average compound growth rate of 23.52%, and the growth rate decreased after 2021, with a rate of only 3.43% from 2021 - 2024. The single - yield has been steadily increasing since 2019 and reached the median level of Southeast Asian producing countries in 2024 [20][21] - Demand: Currently, Cambodia's rubber export accounts for a large proportion, mainly exporting raw materials to Vietnam. With the production of Chinese - funded tire enterprises in Cambodia, the local rubber is expected to be in short supply, the direct rubber export volume will decline, and the tire export will increase rapidly. The tire export is mainly to the United States [33][42][45] 3.1.3 Development Bottlenecks and Future Trends - Development Bottlenecks: The rubber industry in Cambodia faces problems such as labor shortage, farmers' conversion to other crops, insufficient infrastructure construction, and unstable power supply, which may limit the growth of local tire production capacity [48][51] - Future Outlook: From 2026 - 2030, the planting area is expected to continue to grow with the upward shift of rubber prices, the growth rate of the harvested area may slow down, and the single - yield will steadily increase, with a slight increase in production. The government plans to increase the harvested area to about 331,000 hectares, the single - yield to about 1400 kg/ha, and the production to about 463,000 tons by 2030 [53][54][55] 3.2 Review and Comments on Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict Incidents 3.2.1 Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict Timeline and Market Response - 2008 - 2011 Thailand - Cambodia Conflict: Rooted in historical territorial disputes, especially over the Preah Vihear Temple. There were several small - scale conflicts during this period, and the impact on the market was limited by macro - factors [60][61][62] - 2025 Thailand - Cambodia Conflict: There were multiple rounds of conflicts, including sporadic and large - scale ones. The market showed different reactions each time, but the impact on the market was generally short - lived. The market gradually became more rational in evaluating the impact of the conflicts [70][74][83] 3.2.2 Impact of Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict on Rubber Producing Area Tapping Operations - The conflict mainly affects rubber production in terms of the scope of influence, impact time, and foreign labor. The conflict in December 2025, which lasted for a long time and occurred during the production season, had a greater impact on production. The conflict also led to the continuous loss of foreign labor in Thailand's 7 border provinces and Cambodian - origin foreign labor across Thailand [86][87][90] 3.3 Supply Expected to Increase Slightly, Pay Attention to Geopolitical Fluctuation Opportunities in the Short Term - Cambodia's rubber supply is expected to increase slightly. The reconstruction of the downstream processing industry chain does not affect global rubber demand, so it is bearish for rubber prices. The periodic conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia may bring market fluctuation opportunities [93][94][95]