通信行业月报：北美云厂商资本开支强劲，CPO商业化应用拐点临近

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the communication industry [4][7]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the communication industry index increased by 5.47%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (+3.76%), CSI 300 Index (+1.65%), Shenzhen Component Index (+5.03%), and ChiNext Index (+4.47%) [3][13]. - The capital expenditure of the four major North American cloud providers is expected to grow over 60% year-on-year, indicating a turning point for CPO commercialization applications [4][6]. - The retail sales of communication equipment in China increased by 20.9% year-on-year in December 2025, driven by the demand for smartphones [6][44]. - The three major telecom operators in China achieved a total telecom business revenue of 1.75 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [6][45]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The communication industry index rose by 5.47% in January 2026, outperforming major indices [3][13]. - Sub-sectors such as cables, other communication equipment, and system equipment saw increases of 19.70%, 10.72%, and 7.85% respectively [16]. Industry Tracking - The capital expenditure of North American cloud providers reached $126 billion in Q4 2025, a 62% year-on-year increase, with a forecast of over $660 billion for 2026 [24][25]. - AI applications are increasingly driving cloud business growth, with significant investments in AI infrastructure by major cloud providers [30][34]. Telecom Industry Insights - The telecom industry in China is experiencing stable growth, with a focus on new information infrastructure such as 5G and gigabit networks [45]. - The revenue from emerging businesses like cloud computing and big data reached 450.8 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 4.7% year-on-year [45]. Smartphone Market - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, with AI smartphones expected to penetrate 34% of the market [6][44]. - The latest AI smartphones feature advanced NPU chips with processing power between 60 to 200 TOPS, enhancing user experience through real-time interactions [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in optical devices, optical chips, optical modules, and AI smartphones, including Tianfu Communication, ZTE, and China Mobile [7].