KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-02-13 13:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is "Buy" [10] Core Insights - Lenovo's revenue performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong orders for AI servers and robust supply chain resilience, which is expected to stabilize profit margins [6][7] - The company has adjusted its FY2026 earnings forecast upwards due to better-than-expected Q3 performance, maintaining FY2027-2028 earnings projections [6] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 is projected at $1.81 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 Q3, Lenovo reported revenue of $22.204 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $20.76 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [7] - Non-GAAP net profit reached $589 million, exceeding expectations of $463 million, with a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [7] - Breakdown of revenue by business segments: - IDG: Revenue of $15.755 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year, with PC shipments growing 14.4% compared to the industry average of 9.6% [7] - ISG: Revenue of $5.176 billion, up 31.4% year-on-year, supported by AI infrastructure orders [7][8] - SSG: Revenue of $2.652 billion, up 17.5% year-on-year, with deferred revenue increasing by 20% [8] Earnings and Valuation Metrics - Projected revenues for FY2026 are $81.289 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [9] - Non-GAAP net profit projections for FY2026-2028 are $1.81 billion, $2.07 billion, and $2.36 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 25.5%, 14.5%, and 13.9% [9] - The current P/E ratios are projected at 9.5, 8.3, and 7.3 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively [9]