焦炭产量上升煤矿供应下滑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Coke - Supply: Coke production has increased due to the full implementation of the first round of price hikes, narrowing the losses of coke enterprises and boosting production enthusiasm [5] - Demand: Although steel mill profits have improved after consecutive price cuts, overall demand is weak during the off - season. The daily average hot metal production is expected to remain below 2.3 million tons before the Spring Festival, with limited upward drive [5] - Inventory: Steel mills have replenished their inventories, while coke enterprise inventories have decreased. Port and total coke inventories have increased. Steel mill inventory levels are currently relatively high compared to the same period, and coke enterprise inventory levels are relatively low [5] - Profit: The losses of independent coke enterprises have narrowed, with a ton - coke profit of - 10 yuan/ton (+45) as of February 6 [5] - Conclusion: The off - season demand is unlikely to improve significantly, driving the market downward. However, due to frequent external coal - related events, the cost support for coke may strengthen in the medium to long term. A medium - to - long - term bullish and volatile approach is recommended, with the coke index expected to operate between 1660 - 1790. Attention should be paid to risk control during the holiday season [5] Coking Coal - Supply: As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mine production has decreased, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has declined. Coking coal supply is expected to continue to weaken before the festival [7] - Demand: Coking coal daily consumption has increased due to the rise in coke production. However, during the pre - festival off - season, the daily average hot metal production is expected to remain below 2.3 million tons, with limited demand improvement [7] - Inventory: Steel mill and coke enterprise inventories have increased, while coal mine and port inventories have decreased. The total coking coal inventory has increased [7] - Conclusion: Frequent external coal - related events may drive up international coking coal prices, providing some support for domestic prices. A medium - to - long - term bullish and volatile approach is recommended, with the coking coal index expected to operate between 1110 - 1240. Attention should be paid to risk control before the festival [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke Supply - As of February 6, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 631,400 tons (+300), and that of 247 steel mill coking plants was 472,400 tons (+230). The total output of all - sample coking enterprises and 247 steel mills was 1.1038 million tons (+530) [5][17] Profit - As of February 6, the ton - coke profit of independent coking enterprises was - 10 yuan/ton (+45) [21] Demand - As of February 6, the daily average hot metal production was 2.2858 million tons (+6000); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 8.199 million tons (- 32,700); the steel mill profit rate was 39.39% (+0); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.69% (+0.22); and the blast furnace operating rate was 79.53% (+0.53) [5][25] Inventory - As of February 6, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 827,400 tons (- 16,500); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.9238 million tons (+141,900); the total inventory of four major ports was 2.011 million tons (+30,400), and the total coke inventory was 9.7622 million tons (+155,800) [5][29] Inventory Available Days - As of February 6, the inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants was 12.76 days (+0.22) [32] Basis and Spread - As of February 6, the basis of the 05 contract was - 83, a decrease of 18 from the previous week; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 70.5, a decrease of 4.5. The basis and spread have weakened, and the current basis is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [36] Coking Coal Supply - As of February 6, the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1.9253 million tons (- 52,900), with an operating rate of 86.67% (- 2.46); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 26,310 tons (- 460), with an operating rate of 35.54% (- 1.26) [8][43] Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - Mongolian coal customs clearance has decreased [45] Demand - As of February 6, the total coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 1.09469 million tons (+593,500), with available days of 16.51 days (+0.79), corresponding to a daily consumption of 663,000 tons (+44,000); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 824,200 tons (+98,400), with available days of 13.12 days (+0.09), corresponding to a daily consumption of 628,200 tons (+32,000); the total daily consumption was 1.2912 million tons (+76,000) [50] Inventory - As of February 6, the total port inventory was 2.7276 million tons (- 136,200); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 824,200 tons (+98,400); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1.30239 million tons (+676,000); the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 264,650 tons (- 25,300); the total coking coal inventory was 2.664 million tons (+612,900) [8][57] Inventory Available Days - As of February 6, the coking coal inventory available days of 230 independent coking plants was 16.51 days (+0.79); the coking coal inventory available days of 247 steel enterprises was 13.12 days (+0.09) [57] Basis and Spread - As of February 6, the basis of the 05 contract was 69, an increase of 3 from the previous week; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 79, an increase of 5.5 from the previous week. The basis and spread have strengthened, and the coking coal market shows a contango structure [61]