——2026年1月金融数据点评：金融数据实现高质量开年

Financial Data Overview - In January 2026, new social financing (社融) reached 72,200 billion RMB, an increase of 1,654 billion RMB year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%, slightly down from 8.3% in the previous month[1] - New RMB loans from financial institutions amounted to 47,100 billion RMB, a decrease of 4,200 billion RMB compared to the previous year[4] Loan Structure and Trends - In January, the structure of new loans showed that long-term loans to households increased by 3,469 billion RMB, down 1,466 billion RMB year-on-year, while short-term loans increased by 1,097 billion RMB, up 1,594 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate long-term loans decreased by 2,800 billion RMB year-on-year, while short-term loans increased significantly by 3,100 billion RMB[4] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate was 9.0%, up from 8.5% in the previous month, while M1 growth rate rose to 4.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points[5] - In January, RMB deposits increased by 80,900 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37,700 billion RMB, with significant contributions from non-bank financial institutions[5] Market Dynamics and Implications - The government bond net financing in January was 9,764 billion RMB, up 2,831 billion RMB year-on-year, serving as a core support for social financing[3] - The active stock market has contributed to the increase in M2 growth, indicating a potential shift in capital flows towards equity investments[11] Economic Outlook - The weak "opening red" effect of credit growth suggests that the anticipated recovery in the real estate market may not meet expectations[16] - The demand for medium- to long-term loans remains weak, indicating ongoing concerns about economic recovery and internal demand[10]