沥青周度行情分析：沥青需求低位，假期不确定性较大-20260214

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: As of the week of February 13, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 2.5 percentage points week - on - week to 29.12%, and the weekly asphalt output decreased by 22,500 tons to 442,800 tons. Some refineries in Shandong stopped asphalt production and switched to residue production, while others planned to resume production. In the Northeast, Dalian Xitai plans to resume asphalt production after the Spring Festival in April. In the Northwest, Xinjiang Karamay Petrochemical's daily asphalt output has recovered to 2,100 tons, with a planned production of about 60,000 tons in February. Although the high valuation of asphalt has declined, the port inventory of diluted asphalt is increasing, and continuous attention should be paid to the Venezuela event and raw material supply [5]. - Demand side: As of the week of February 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume was 154,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,400 tons. The开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 2%, a week - on - week decrease of 7 percentage points, and the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 5%, a week - on - week decrease of 10 percentage points. During the Spring Festival holiday, rigid demand and logistics basically stagnated, traders gradually closed for the holiday, and major refineries mainly fulfilled orders [5]. - Inventory side: Asphalt refineries slightly increased their inventory by 5,000 tons, and social inventories continued to increase by 46,400 tons [5]. - Unilateral: Although the asphalt valuation has slightly declined, it is still at a high level, and the demand side remains weak. It is expected to mainly fluctuate with crude oil. Due to the high uncertainty of overseas crude oil during the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to wait and see. - Cross - variety arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see for asphalt cracking arbitrage. - Spot - futures and inter - period arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Hold short put options [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Angle - Refinery production status: Jincheng Petrochemical in Shandong stopped asphalt production and switched to residue production on February 11, Qilu Petrochemical did the same on February 12. Lanqiao Petrochemical will resume asphalt production after the end of equipment maintenance at the end of February, Qicheng Petrochemical will resume production on February 18, and Shengxing Petrochemical stopped asphalt production and switched to residue production on February 4. Dalian Xitai in the Northeast plans to resume asphalt production after the Spring Festival in April. Xinjiang Karamay Petrochemical in the Northwest has its daily asphalt output recovered to 2,100 tons, with a planned production of about 60,000 tons in February [5][7]. -开工率 and output: The asphalt开工率 decreased by 2.5 percentage points week - on - week to 29.12%, and the weekly asphalt output decreased by 22,500 tons to 442,800 tons [5][9][19]. - Equipment maintenance plan: Many refineries across the country are in a state of equipment maintenance, suspension of production, or production switching, including those in the Northwest, Northeast, North China, Central China, East China, the Yangtze River Delta, South China, and Southwest regions [22][23]. Demand Angle - Market situation during the Spring Festival: During the Spring Festival holiday, rigid demand and logistics basically stagnated, traders gradually closed for the holiday, and major refineries mainly fulfilled orders. Different regions had different demand situations, such as demand stagnation in Shandong, slow - down in shipment in North China, and reduced market transactions in East China [26]. - Seasonal decline: As of the week of February 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume, the开工率 of road - modified asphalt, and the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt all seasonally declined to low levels. The asphalt shipment volume was 154,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,400 tons; the开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 2%, a week - on - week decrease of 7 percentage points; and the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 5%, a week - on - week decrease of 10 percentage points [5][28][29]. - Weather impact: In the next ten days, there will be strong precipitation in the northern part of the Yangtze River Basin, and the average temperature in most parts of the country will be high but with large fluctuations in cold and warm. This may have an impact on asphalt demand [31][33]. Inventory Angle - Refinery inventory: As of the week of February 13, domestic asphalt refinery inventories slightly increased by 5,000 tons to 846,600 tons. Inventories in different regions showed different trends [36]. - Social inventory: As of the week of February 13, domestic asphalt social inventories continued to increase by 46,400 tons to 1,570,500 tons. Inventories in different regions also showed different trends [44]. Basis Angle - Recent basis changes are not significant, as shown by the basis data of different contracts such as BU02, BU05, etc. [60][61][62]. Spread Angle - It is recommended to wait and see for spread arbitrage, as shown by the spread data of different contract combinations such as BU02 - 03, BU05 - 06, etc. [74][75][76]. Profit Angle - Production profit: As of the week of February 13, the asphalt production gross profit was 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton, and the asphalt production cost was 3,216 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton. The port inventory of domestic diluted asphalt was 980,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The high valuation of asphalt has declined, and the port inventory of diluted asphalt is increasing. Attention should be paid to whether the Venezuela event affects raw material supply [89]. - Cracking spread: The asphalt cracking spread at a high level has slightly declined, as shown by the data of different contract combinations such as BU02/SC03, BU02/Brent04, etc. [91][92][93]. Warehouse Receipt Angle - Warehouse receipt quantity: The warehouse receipts slightly increased. - Virtual - to - real ratio: The virtual - to - real ratios of contracts 04 and 05 have declined from high levels, while those of other contracts are neutral [108][109].