纯碱周度行情分析：节后累库预期犹存，纯碱价格恐弱势难改-20260214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of soda ash is likely to remain weak due to the expected post - holiday inventory build - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, which will continue to put pressure on the market [5]. - The spread between soda ash 05 and 09 contracts may run weakly in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - The main contract 05 of soda ash continued to decline in a volatile manner this week, with the price center moving down. As of Thursday, the closing price of soda ash 2603 contract was 1118 yuan/ton, and that of soda ash 2605 contract was 1162 yuan/ton [5]. Spot Market - The soda ash spot market has become dull, with more shipments and less new orders. As of now, the heavy - soda price in North China is 1190 - 1300 yuan/ton, in East China is about 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton. The light - soda price in East China is 1160 yuan/ton, in North China is about 1200 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1130 yuan/ton [7]. Basis and Spread - The basis of soda ash 05 contract has strengthened. As of Thursday, the basis of North China heavy - soda 05 contract is about 58 yuan/ton, and that of Central China heavy - soda 05 contract is about - 12 yuan/ton. The spread between soda ash 03 and 05 contracts has adjusted downward. As of Thursday, the spread between soda ash 03 and 05 contracts is - 44 yuan/ton, and that between soda ash 05 and 09 contracts is - 67 yuan/ton. In the medium term, the spreads are likely to continue to oscillate weakly [11]. Supply Side - The domestic soda ash start - up rate rebounded this week. As of February 12, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 85.18%, a 1.93% increase from last week. The soda ash output continued to rise. As of February 12, the soda ash output was about 79.23 tons, a 1.8 - ton increase from last week. The domestic soda ash enterprise shipment volume was about 78.54 tons, a 6.5% increase from last week, and the overall shipment rate was about 99.13% [12][15]. Demand Side - The apparent demand for soda ash rebounded this week. The daily melting volume of float glass continued to decline, with the daily output of about 14.8 tons this week, a 1.2% decrease from the previous period. The inventory of float glass increased significantly, and the cold - repair loss continued to increase. The profit of float glass improved [17][21][28]. Inventory Side - The inventory of the soda ash industry continued to increase. As of February 12, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 158.80 tons. Considering the demand shrinkage and sufficient supply during the holiday, the soda ash market is expected to face inventory build - up pressure after the holiday [30]. Profit - The profit of the soda ash industry continued to decline slightly. As of February 12, the theoretical profit of domestic dual - process soda ash was about - 32.5 yuan/ton, a 3.5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period, and the theoretical profit of domestic ammonia - soda process soda ash was about - 89.25 yuan/ton, a 0.45 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The industry is still in a loss stage [33].