信贷克制开局，存款绕道回家

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, the new social financing scale reached 72,200 billion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 68,032 billion yuan, and increased by 1,654 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - New loans from financial institutions amounted to 47,100 billion yuan, close to the expected 47,255 billion yuan, but decreased by 4,200 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - M1 and M2 grew by 4.9% and 9.0% year-on-year, respectively, showing an increase from December's growth rates of 3.8% and 8.5%[6] Group 2: Contributions to Social Financing - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by government bonds, with new government bonds, discounted bills, and corporate bonds contributing 9,764 billion, 6,293 billion, and 5,033 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2,831 billion, 1,639 billion, and 579 billion yuan[2] - The new loans in the real economy were 49,000 billion yuan, which was a year-on-year decrease of 3,194 billion yuan, indicating a restrained demand for loans[2] Group 3: Loan Performance and Trends - January's new loan performance was below expectations, with banks focusing on balanced lending, contrasting with historical trends where January typically sees significant loan increases[3] - Short-term loans outperformed medium and long-term loans, with new short-term loans at 20,500 billion yuan (up 3,100 billion year-on-year) and medium/long-term loans at 31,800 billion yuan (down 2,800 billion year-on-year)[4] Group 4: Deposit Trends - New deposits in January reached a record high of 80,900 billion yuan, with new resident and corporate deposits at 47,400 billion and 15,500 billion yuan respectively[5] - There are concerns about potential "deposit migration" to non-bank institutions, but evidence suggests that funds are ultimately returning to banks[5]