下游负反馈延续，聚酯链区间整理运行

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - From a policy perspective, OPEC+ maintains the policy framework of suspending production increases in Q1 2026, with March production unchanged, providing policy support for oil prices. The IEA monthly report lowers the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2026, and there is still pressure on supply surplus in Q1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cause the geopolitical premium to rise periodically. There is no new policy for the polyester industry chain, and the policy environment remains neutral [3]. - In terms of market rhythm, crude oil fluctuates strongly this week, with prices falling at the beginning of the week due to weak demand and rebounding in the latter half due to intensified tensions in the Middle East. The polyester chain shows a differentiated and volatile trend due to continued negative feedback from downstream and slow post - holiday resumption of work. PX and PTA are relatively resistant to decline and remain strong, while MEG is weak due to high - inventory pressure [3]. - In terms of supply - demand, PX supply is slightly more relaxed, and demand is marginally weak. PTA supply is affected by maintenance, and demand is sluggish, with inventory accumulation accelerating. MEG supply is marginally more relaxed, demand is shrinking, and high - inventory pressure persists. Short - fiber and bottle - chip show a pattern of weak supply and demand [4]. - In terms of valuation, PX profit remains relatively high, PTA processing fees are under pressure, MEG valuation is weak, short - fiber processing fees rise slightly, and bottle - chip processing fees are weak [4]. - In terms of trends, PX fluctuates with crude oil prices, PTA is mainly in high - level shock consolidation, MEG maintains a weak shock pattern, and short - fiber and bottle - chip fluctuate passively with raw materials. In terms of arbitrage, cautiously arrange positive spreads for PX, TA, and EG from May to September, and continue to go long on PTA and short on MEG [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Fluctuations - NYMEX crude oil futures fell by $3.82 to $60.65 per barrel, a decrease of 5.9%. ICE Brent crude oil futures fell by $1.27 to $67.68 per barrel, a decrease of 1.8%. Domestic crude oil futures fell by 1.7 yuan to 460.7 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 0.4%. Naphtha CFR Japan rose by $13.88 to $612.13 per ton, an increase of 2.3% [6]. - PX CFR China rose by $7.34 to $909.67 per ton, an increase of 0.8%. PTA East China spot price fell by 20 yuan to 5130 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.4%. Ethylene glycol East China spot price fell by 107 yuan to 3575 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.9% [6]. - Polyester chip East China spot price rose by 30 yuan to 5930 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.5%. Polyester short - fiber East China spot price fell by 10 yuan to 6570 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.2%. Polyester bottle - chip East China spot price fell by 50 yuan to 6200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.8% [6]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 3.2.1 PX - This week, Zhejiang Petrochemical's reforming unit restarted, and Sinochem Quanzhou's 800,000 - ton PX unit was restarted on January 25 but has not yet produced qualified products. This week's PX output was 758,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%. The domestic average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 91.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. The Asian average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 80.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.97% [7]. - According to the PX weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was - 29,900 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.3905 million tons [8]. 3.2.2 PTA - During the cycle, Dushan Energy shut down for maintenance near the weekend, and the overall domestic PTA output decreased slightly. This week's domestic PTA output was 1.462 million tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from last week and an increase of 43,700 tons from the same period last year. The domestic average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 76.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.20% [10]. - According to the PTA weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was 169,500 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.415 million tons [11]. 3.2.3 MEG - This week, Sinochem Quanzhou's petrochemical integration unit completed maintenance and increased its load to normal levels. Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton production line switched to polyethylene production. The loads of Sanjiang Chemical and Sichuan Petrochemical increased, while the loads of three production lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical decreased. Xinjiang Guanghui's coal - based unit was under maintenance, and the load of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Yulin Chemical increased. The weekly output was 417,100 tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.65%. The total capacity utilization rate was 64.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.41% [13]. - According to the MEG weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was 105,000 tons, and the ending inventory was 2.0186 million tons [14]. 3.3 Product - Specific Analysis 3.3.1 PX - Lack of driving force, PX prices fluctuate with crude oil. Spot prices fluctuate within a range, and the basis between futures and spot strengthens. Short - and medium - term processing fees increase slightly [23][26][29]. - The PX - naphtha spread and PX - MX spread are presented in the report, showing the change trends of processing fees [30]. 3.3.2 PTA - Boosted by costs, PTA prices strengthen slightly. The basis between futures and spot, spot processing fees, and futures processing fees show different trends [35][38]. - PTA production and capacity utilization rates are affected by maintenance, and inventory shows an upward trend. In December, PTA exports were 361,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.86% [39][43]. 3.3.3 MEG - The fundamentals are still weak, and the price center of gravity of ethylene glycol moves downward again. The basis, oil - based, coal - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based profits, and capacity utilization rates are presented in the report [48][54][55]. - In December, Saudi Arabia's MEG imports were 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.52%. Port inventory increased month - on - month [64][66]. 3.3.4 Polyester Short - Fiber - The short - fiber processing fees are slightly repaired due to device shutdown. Spot processing fees increase, capacity utilization rate decreases significantly, production and sales are dull, and inventory increases month - on - month [69][74][81]. 3.3.5 Polyester Bottle - Chip - Supply is reduced, and prices follow raw materials to strengthen. The basis, spot processing fees, and capacity utilization rates are presented in the report. In December, bottle - chip exports were 588,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.44% [86][91][96]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Analysis - Polyester, filament, weaving, and dyeing industries: The weaving start - up rate and textile orders decline continuously. The polyester start - up rate is 79.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.45%. Filament production and sales are dull, inventory increases month - on - month, and profits are repaired month - on - month [100][101][103]. - In December, polyester exports were 1.3061 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. The weaving start - up rate is 11.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 47.66%, and textile orders are 5.81 days, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50% [109][112].