2026年1月美国通胀数据点评：服务强于商品，压力整体不大

Inflation Data - January CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 2.4%, below the market expectation of 2.5% and down from the previous value of 2.7%[2] - Core CPI also fell to 2.5%, down from 2.6%, marking the lowest level since April 2021[2] - Month-on-month, core CPI rose by 0.3%, in line with expectations, compared to a previous increase of 0.2%[2] Energy and Commodity Trends - Energy inflation dropped further, with January CPI energy component year-on-year growth at -0.1%, down from 2.3%[3] - Gasoline prices saw a year-on-year decline of -7.5%, contributing significantly to the overall energy inflation drop[3] - Core commodity inflation fell to 1.1% year-on-year, down from 1.4%, with used car prices plummeting to -2% year-on-year, a decline of 3.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] Service Inflation - Core service inflation decreased to 2.9% year-on-year, down from 3%, while month-on-month growth increased to 0.4% from 0.3%[4] - Housing inflation year-on-year was 3.3%, slightly down from 3.4%, indicating a continued moderation trend[4] - Medical services showed a rebound, with year-on-year growth rising to 3.9%[4] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices experienced moderate gains, and the dollar index fell below 97[4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates before June increased to 68%, up from 62%[4] - The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to 3.4% and 4.05%, respectively, both reaching new lows since November 2025[4]