中国经济观察：2026年一季度-毕马威

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, reaching a total of 140 trillion yuan, meeting the initial target[10] - Fixed asset investment saw a decline of 3.8%, marking the first annual negative growth since records began[10] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%, with service consumption growing at 5.5%[10] 2026 Outlook - GDP growth is projected at 4.8%, with expectations of improved internal demand and a narrowing of supply-demand disparities[5] - CPI is expected to recover moderately, with the decline in the GDP deflator narrowing from -1.0% to around -0.2%[6] - Investment is anticipated to stabilize, with marginal improvements in manufacturing and a reduction in the decline of real estate investment[8] Capital Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to continue its structural bull market, led by the technology sector, with global funds increasing allocations to Chinese assets[7] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to appreciate moderately to around 6.8[7] Risks and Challenges - Insufficient internal demand and low prices are mutually reinforcing, leading to weak consumption and investment growth, which pressures corporate profits[11] - The real estate market is undergoing deep adjustments, with ongoing declines in investment and high inventory levels affecting market confidence[11] - High youth unemployment rate at 16.5% poses structural challenges to employment and income stability[11]