2026年1月金融数据点评：开年金融数据的几点信号

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In January 2026, new loans increased significantly less year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand. The Spring Festival in 2026 was late, and the early repayment of personal loans before the Spring Festival might affect February's personal loan data. Due to the forward - leaning credit delivery rhythm and weak credit demand, new loans in 2026 may continue to increase less year - on - year [2]. - The M1 growth rate temporarily rebounded. The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of January 2026 was 4.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the end of last month, mainly due to the low year - on - year base and active stock market transactions. The M2 growth rate at the end of January was 9.0%, up 0.5 percentage points from the end of last month, mainly affected by the year - on - year base [2]. - The social financing growth rate declined month - on - month in January 2026, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026. The social financing increment in January was 7.22 trillion yuan, a slight year - on - year increase. It is expected that new loans (in the social financing caliber) will increase slightly less year - on - year in 2026, the net financing of government bonds will expand year - on - year, the social financing increment will be similar year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate will decline slightly, reaching about 7.5% at the end of 2026 [2]. - There is further room for the long - term bond yield to decline. The long - term bond yield may decline by 5 - 10BP in the first quarter, the 10Y Treasury bond yield is expected to reach 1.75%, the 30Y Treasury bond active bond may return below 2.2%, and the 1Y large - bank inter - bank certificate of deposit rate may fall below 1.55%. It is expected that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9% in 2026, and the bond market trend may be significantly stronger than the initial expectation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. January 2026 Financial Data - New loans in January 2026 were 4.71 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42 trillion yuan. Personal loans increased by 4565 billion yuan (short - term loans + 1097 billion yuan, medium - and long - term loans + 3469 billion yuan), and corporate loans increased by 4.45 trillion yuan (short - term loans + 2.05 trillion yuan, medium - and long - term loans + 3.18 trillion yuan, bill discounting - 8739 billion yuan) [2]. - At the end of January, M2 reached 347.2 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.0%; M1 had a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%; the social financing growth rate was 8.2% [1]. - The social financing increment in January was 7.22 trillion yuan (7.05 trillion yuan in January 2025), a slight year - on - year increase. The increase mainly came from the net financing of government bonds and undiscounted bank acceptance bills. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy in January was 4.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3194 billion yuan; entrusted loans were - 192 billion yuan, trust loans were - 4 billion yuan, undiscounted bank acceptance bills were + 6293 billion yuan; corporate bond net financing was 5033 billion yuan; government bond net financing was 9764 billion yuan [2]. 2. Forecast for 2026 - It is expected that new loans (in the social financing caliber) will increase slightly less year - on - year in 2026, the net financing of government bonds will expand year - on - year, the social financing increment will be similar year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate will decline slightly, reaching about 7.5% at the end of 2026 [2]. - It is expected that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9% in 2026, and the bond market trend may be significantly stronger than the initial expectation [2].