美国2026年1月CPI数据：1月通胀降温或是“烟雾弹”

Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%[2] - The core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, matching expectations but slightly down from 2.6% in December 2025[2] Key Drivers of Inflation - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by falling food and energy prices, with food prices rising by 0.2% month-on-month compared to 0.6% previously, and energy prices decreasing by 1.5% month-on-month, down from a 0.3% increase[2] - Energy commodity prices fell by 3.3% month-on-month, while energy services saw a slight increase of 0.2%[2] Core Inflation Risks - Core goods prices showed upward pressure, particularly in clothing (up 0.3% month-on-month) and new car prices (up 0.1%) despite a significant drop in used car prices (down 2.0% year-on-year)[2] - Core services prices increased slightly by 0.4% month-on-month, influenced by higher transportation costs due to severe weather conditions[2] Market Reactions - Following the release of the January inflation data, the market reacted with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a rise in both US stocks and bonds, a decline in the US dollar index, and an increase in gold prices[2] Uncertainties and Future Outlook - The report highlights significant uncertainties in the sustainability of the January inflation data, primarily due to weather-related disruptions and the potential for core inflation to rise again[2] - The upcoming tax refund season and fiscal subsidies may stimulate consumer demand, posing risks for core goods and services inflation to remain sticky[2]