美国1月通胀相对温和

Inflation Data - In January 2026, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%[3] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.2%, below the expected and previous value of 0.3%[3] - Core CPI year-on-year increased by 2.5%, in line with expectations, while the previous value was 2.6%[3] Price Trends - Energy prices saw a significant decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%, driven mainly by gasoline (-3.2%) and fuel oil (-5.7%) price drops[3] - Food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.7% previously, with household food and restaurant prices also showing notable declines[3] Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices remained flat month-on-month at 0%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, down from 1.4% previously[4] - The core services price index rose by 0.4% month-on-month, up from 0.3% previously, indicating resilience in service sector inflation[7] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June increased to 51.8% from 48.9%[9] - US Treasury yields fell slightly, with the 2-year yield dropping by 7 basis points to 3.4% and the 10-year yield down by 5 basis points to 4.04%[9] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the volatility in used car prices is more of a technical adjustment rather than a collapse in consumer demand, which may mask underlying inflation trends in other core goods[5] - The Cleveland Fed predicts that January's core PCE will remain at 2.8% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the downward trend of core inflation[8]