海外观察：美国2026年1月CPI数据：1月通胀降温或是“烟雾弹”

Inflation Data Overview - The U.S. CPI for January 2026 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year was 2.5%, matching expectations but slightly down from 2.6% in December 2025[2] - Month-on-month CPI adjusted for seasonal factors increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] Key Drivers of Inflation - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by falling food and energy prices, with energy prices decreasing by 1.5% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.3%[2] - Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, down from a 0.6% increase in December 2025, largely due to a drop in egg prices[2] Core Inflation Risks - Core inflation shows potential upward pressure, particularly in clothing and new car prices, which increased by 0.3% and 0.1% month-on-month, respectively[2] - Despite a significant drop in used car prices, early indicators suggest a possible rebound in the coming months[2] Service Prices and Weather Impact - Core service prices saw a slight increase, with transportation costs rising by 1.4% month-on-month due to weather-related disruptions[2] - Housing prices showed a slight decline, with rent year-on-year decreasing from 2.9% to 2.8%[2] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The overall inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to market speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in a rise in U.S. stocks and bonds, and a decline in the dollar index[2] - The sustainability of the January inflation data remains uncertain due to various short-term disturbances, particularly from weather factors[2]