如何理解社融与货币增速背离

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The credit performance at the beginning of the year was lackluster, and government bonds drove the growth of social financing. In the context of the front - loaded government bond issuance and the weak recovery of corporate medium - and long - term loans, the growth rate of social financing in the first half of 2026 may continue a gentle downward trend [1][6][10] - The increase in the M1 growth rate in January 2026 was mainly due to the Spring Festival factor, and the divergence between the M2 growth rate and the social financing growth rate might be affected by multiple factors such as the increase in the scale of foreign exchange settlement and the low base of non - bank deposits [2][12][16] - The large increase in fiscal deposits led to a withdrawal of funds, and the improvement in liquidity might be due to weak credit demand or the central bank's use of structural tools. Under the expectation of monetary easing, the bond market is expected to continue to strengthen after the Spring Festival [3][19][21][23] 3. Summary by Related Content Credit Situation - In January 2026, the new credit was 4.71 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42 trillion yuan. Considering the Spring Festival factor, credit demand was even weaker. Corporate credit increased by 44,500 yuan billion, a year - on - year decrease of 3,300 billion yuan, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 31,800 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2,800 billion yuan. Resident medium - and long - term loans increased by 346.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 146.6 billion yuan, mainly dragged down by the weak real estate market [1][6] Social Financing Situation - In January 2026, the new social financing was 7.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 165.4 billion yuan. The year - on - year increase in social financing was mainly driven by the large - scale issuance of government bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.2%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The new scale of government bonds in January 2026 was 976.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 283.1 billion yuan. In the first half of 2026, the growth rate of social financing may continue to decline gently [1][10] M1 and M2 Growth Rate Situation - In January 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 4.9%, mainly due to the Spring Festival misalignment factor, which pushed up the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in January by about 1.3 percentage points [2][12][14] - From November last year to January this year, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 increased by 1.0 percentage point to 9.0%, while the growth rate of the social financing stock slowed down by 0.3 percentage points to 8.2%. The increase in the foreign exchange settlement ratio and the large year - on - year increase in non - bank deposits might be the reasons for the divergence between the two [2][16] Liquidity Situation - The increase in foreign exchange settlement did not form liquidity injection, and the large increase in fiscal deposits in January led to a withdrawal of liquidity. However, the liquidity was actually very loose in January. One reason was the weak credit demand, and the other was the possible use of structural tools by the central bank [3][19][21] Bond Market Outlook - Currently, social financing is weak. Under the expectation of the use of aggregate monetary tools and loose money, the bond market is expected to continue to strengthen after the Spring Festival, with short - term interest rates likely to decline further, and the dumbbell strategy on the curve is relatively more advantageous [3][23]