Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-02-14 14:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the coal market post-Chinese New Year, driven by supply constraints and inventory depletion, with expectations of significant price increases [9][11]. - Domestic coal prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, while port coal prices are accelerating upward [12][11]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will return to a balanced supply-demand state in 2023-2024, with prices expected to fluctuate between 750-1000 RMB/ton [11][12]. Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecast, Valuation, and Ratings - Recommended companies include: - Jinko Coal Industry (601001): EPS forecast of 1.68 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - Shanxi Coal International (600546): EPS forecast of 1.14 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699): EPS forecast of 0.82 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 17 [2]. - Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348): EPS forecast of 0.62 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 15 [2]. - Yancoal Energy (600188): EPS forecast of 1.44 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 12 [2]. - China Shenhua Energy (601088): EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 14 [2]. - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225): EPS forecast of 2.31 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - China Coal Energy (601898): EPS forecast of 1.46 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - CGN Mining (1164.HK): EPS forecast of 0.04 HKD for 2024, with a PE of 108 [2]. - Xinji Energy (601918): EPS forecast of 0.92 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 8 [2]. - Huaibei Mining (600985): EPS forecast of 1.80 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 7 [2]. - Lanhua Sci-Tech (600123): EPS forecast of 0.49 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 13 [2]. Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 1.9% compared to the 0.4% increase in the CSI 300 index [20][17]. - The thermal coal sub-sector showed the highest increase of 3.0%, while the coking coal sub-sector experienced a decline of 3.9% [20][17]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that domestic coal supply is tightening due to the Chinese New Year holiday, with a significant decrease in port inventory levels compared to the previous year [11][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high spot market exposure and recommends focusing on companies with strong balance sheets and high cash flow [12][11].