——2026年1月金融数据点评：如何规避基数影响评估1月金融数据？

Group 1: Current Financial Data Analysis - In January 2026, the M2 growth was strong, with an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan month-on-month, ranking second highest in the observed data range, only behind 2024[17] - The growth of corporate deposits in January was exceptionally strong, with an increase of 1.4 trillion yuan month-on-month, representing 113% of the total increase for the previous year, the highest in the observed data range[19] - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.8 trillion yuan month-on-month, ranking second highest in the observed data range, with the increase accounting for approximately 21% of the total increase for the previous year[24] Group 2: Future Liquidity Outlook - Future liquidity appears to rely heavily on policy support, with weak consumer borrowing and direct financing through non-bank sectors[63] - The upcoming maturity of interbank certificates of deposit is expected to gradually decrease, which may impact liquidity levels[63] - The current liquidity easing is a fact, but under the "exit from unconventional" policy context, a marginal weakening of liquidity in 2026 compared to 2025 is likely[63] Group 3: Market Impact - The financial data does not yet provide a robust judgment on the recovery of domestic demand, indicating a continued reliance on exports[65] - The relationship between stocks and bonds remains unchanged, with the peak of the Shanghai Composite Index in January aligning with the peak of the ten-year government bond yield[65] - The bottom of bond yields is clearer than the top, as the probability of unconventional monetary easing by the central bank gradually decreases[65]