海外周报春节海外市场回顾IEEPA违法后特朗普的Plan B

Market Overview - During the Spring Festival period, overseas markets were impacted by geopolitical tensions in Iran, ongoing concerns about AI in the US stock market, and the release of key economic data such as US CPI and GDP[2] - Gold and the US dollar index rose in tandem, while US Treasury yields, US stocks, and commodities initially declined before rebounding[2] Economic Data - The US GDP for Q4 2025 was reported at +1.4%, significantly below expectations of +2.8% and the previous quarter's +4.4%, primarily due to a -0.9% contribution from government spending[16] - Core CPI and PCE inflation remained sticky, with PCE inflation exceeding expectations, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures[14] Asset Performance - Silver led the performance among major assets during the Spring Festival with a 12.44% increase, driven by the escalation of the Iranian situation and rising oil prices[3] - European stock indices outperformed US stocks during this period, with the UK, France, and Germany leading the global equity market[3] Policy and Tariffs - The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's IEEPA tariffs were illegal, leading to the announcement of a new 10% global tariff under Section 122, effective February 24[27] - Trump threatened to increase tariffs on certain economies from 10% to 15%, indicating potential legislative moves to solidify tariff legality[27] Future Outlook - The combination of better-than-expected US economic data and the Supreme Court ruling is expected to boost risk appetite, particularly benefiting export chains and cyclical sectors until mid-March[8] - A significant rebound in the US economy is anticipated in Q1 2026, driven by the end of the government shutdown's negative impact and the effects of previous interest rate cuts[26]