商业银行同业存单及负债梳理：1Y 同业存单利率有望小幅下行-20260223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The balance of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) has declined significantly since the second half of 2025. The 1Y inter - bank CD rate is expected to decline slightly, and the 1Y inter - bank CD rate of large banks may fall below 1.55% in the next few quarters. The long - term bond yield has room for further decline, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield expected to oscillate between 1.6% - 1.9% in 2026, and the bond market trend may be significantly stronger than the early - year expectations [1][2][3]. 3. Summary of Related Contents 3.1 Inter - bank CD Balance and Structure - As of the end of January 2026, the balance of inter - bank CDs was 19.03 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.77 trillion yuan compared to the end of May 2025. Among them, the balance of state - owned large banks was 6.34 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.36 trillion yuan compared to the first half of 2025; the balance of joint - stock banks was 5.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.6 trillion yuan; the balance of city commercial banks was 5.81 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.13 trillion yuan; the balance of rural commercial banks was 1.14 trillion yuan, with little change [1]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the proportion of 1Y inter - bank CDs has decreased from 63.2% at the end of 2024 to 50.2% at the end of January 2026 [1]. 3.2 Reasons for the Decline in Inter - bank CD Balance of Large Banks - Since the second quarter of 2025, the growth rate of general deposits of the four major banks has rebounded from 3.7% at the end of March 2025 to 7.6% at the end of January 2026, alleviating the liability pressure of large banks [1]. - Since the second half of 2025, the central bank has increased the medium - and long - term liquidity injection. As of the end of January 2026, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations reached 21.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.55 trillion yuan compared to the end of May 2025. The large banks obtained a large amount of funds through repurchase and MLF, significantly reducing their demand for issuing inter - bank CDs [1]. - The preference of wealth management products for investing in deposits and the growth of non - bank inter - bank deposits due to the active stock market may also reduce the demand of some banks for issuing inter - bank CDs [1]. 3.3 Deposit Situation - Since 2022, although the deposit interest rate has been significantly reduced multiple times, the balance of personal time deposits has steadily increased from 68.2 trillion yuan at the end of December 2021 to 123.8 trillion yuan at the end of January 2026. The impact of the significant reduction of the time deposit interest rate in May 2025 on personal time deposits has weakened [1]. - The "current - deposit - oriented" trend of bank deposits is not obvious. As of the end of January 2026, the proportion of current deposits in personal deposits was only 26.3%, slightly lower than 26.8% at the end of September 2024. Since the beginning of 2025, the proportion of current deposits has stabilized, which is beneficial for banks to reduce liability costs [2]. 3.4 Investor Structure of Inter - bank CDs - As of the end of December 2025, policy banks held 0.44 trillion yuan of inter - bank CDs, accounting for 2.2%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points compared to the end of 2020; depository financial institutions held 4.72 trillion yuan, accounting for 24.0%, a decrease of 12.4 percentage points; non - legal person products held 12.53 trillion yuan, accounting for 63.7%, an increase of 14.4 percentage points. The investment demand for inter - bank CDs is mainly from broad - based funds such as bank wealth management products and money market funds [2]. 3.5 Interest Rate Analysis - The money market interest rate is greatly affected by the central bank's actions. The inter - bank CD rate is related to the marginal winning bid rates of repurchase and MLF. The short - term interest rate still has room to decline, and the 1Y inter - bank CD rate of large banks may fall below 1.55% in the next few quarters [2]. - The long - term bond yield has room for further decline. The 10Y Treasury bond yield is expected to oscillate between 1.6% - 1.9% in 2026, and the 30Y Treasury bond active bond may return below 2.2%. The 1Y inter - bank CD rate of large banks may fall below 1.55% [3].