中国股市“迎接转型牛”专题系列报告三：中国股市上升的关键动力三：中国内需提振的“有力转折”

Group 1 - The focus of China's economic work is shifting towards domestic demand as a primary task, marking a historical turning point for expanding domestic demand [7][8] - The proportion of final consumption expenditure in GDP is expected to reach approximately 56.6% by 2024, significantly lower than the 66%-83% levels of developed economies like Japan and South Korea [7][23] - The strategic position of consumption as a "stabilizer" and "new engine" for economic growth is increasingly prominent, with service consumption becoming a core driver of consumption upgrade [7][23] Group 2 - Current domestic consumption is stabilizing at a low level, with structural recovery signals gradually emerging, supported by effective policies targeting long-standing consumption constraints [30][33] - The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth reached 52% in 2025, indicating that domestic demand is solidifying its dominant role in macroeconomic balance [33] - Service consumption is leading the recovery, with its share of total consumption rising from 41.66% to 46.15% over the past three years, indicating a strong trend towards service-oriented consumption [34] Group 3 - The real estate sector has undergone significant adjustments, entering a bottoming phase, with housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities dropping by 22%, 30%, and 30% respectively from their peaks [7][10] - Recent policy changes are positively impacting the real estate market, with financing policies easing and urban renewal initiatives stabilizing housing price expectations [12][29] - The valuation and holding of domestic demand-related sectors are at historical lows, presenting a favorable opportunity for investment as expectations stabilize [4][38]