如何看待游戏板块估值天花板：历史复盘和未来展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming sector [12] Core Insights - The gaming sector's overall valuation has rebounded to historical midpoints, driven by performance growth, policy optimization, and the application of AI. Long-term products and a rich product pipeline are crucial for enhancing performance certainty and boosting sector valuations [4][6] - The valuation of the gaming sector is currently around 31x TTM P/E, which is approximately at the 64th percentile historically over the past decade. The sector has seen a significant recovery from historical lows, although internal structural differentiation is notable [19][20] - The future outlook for the gaming industry remains strong, with AI and gameplay innovations expected to drive continuous growth, suggesting that the industry's mid-to-long-term valuations may align more closely with leading overseas firms [10][28] Summary by Sections Current Valuation Position - As of January 31, 2026, the gaming sector's P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is approximately 31x, with a historical percentile of around 64%. The overall valuation has recovered from historical lows, but there is significant internal differentiation among companies [19][20] Overseas Valuation Drivers - High-quality IP and platform capabilities are core supports for the valuations of leading overseas gaming companies. These companies benefit from longer development histories and less regulatory impact, providing a key reference for domestic valuations [7][28] LTV and Pipeline - Long-term products and a rich product pipeline are critical for enhancing performance certainty and boosting sector valuations. High LTV products can improve cash flow stability, leading to valuation premiums. The shift from "chasing hits" to "nurturing evergreen titles" is expected to align gaming companies' valuations with those of stable growth consumer stocks or platform companies [8][60] Valuation Review - The gaming industry's valuation center has historically been influenced by the resonance of technology, policy, and performance cycles. Current upward momentum is supported by advancements in AI, stable policy environments, and ongoing performance improvements from new game launches [9][20] Mid-to-Long-Term Outlook - The Chinese gaming market still has significant growth potential in user base and niche markets. The application of new technologies like AI is expected to transform gameplay and business models, providing strong support for industry valuations [10][30]