2026春节经济与市场展望：升值、资金宽松，中国资产开门红

Domestic Economic Performance - During the Spring Festival from February 2 to February 21, 2026, the total inter-regional population flow reached 508,011.5 million, an increase of approximately 5.5% compared to 2025[1] - Domestic tourism consumption grew by 4.5% in the first three days of the holiday, driven by favorable weather and an extended holiday period[1] - The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 8.6% year-on-year in the first four days of the holiday[1] - Real estate sales improved significantly, with a total transaction area of 72,500 square meters in 30 cities during the holiday, a 54% increase compared to 2025[1] International Trade and Market Trends - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA tariffs were unconstitutional, leading to a potential 5%-10% reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods[2] - Trump's announcement to raise tariffs to 15% may create a new window for export opportunities for China[2] - Global stock markets showed a slight rebound during the Spring Festival, with major indices like the Nikkei and Dow Jones reaching historical highs[3] Asset Outlook - The Chinese Yuan is expected to continue appreciating, with projections moving towards 6.8 against the USD[4] - A-shares are anticipated to perform well due to stable domestic fundamentals and favorable external market conditions[4] - The bond market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in yields due to a relaxed liquidity environment post-holiday[4]