银行业周报：假期港股银行表现如何

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Views - During the Spring Festival holiday, the overall performance of Hong Kong banks was stable, with the AH premium narrowing to 21% [1][2] - The AH premium for banks has decreased by 11 percentage points to 21% since the end of 2025, which is at a low percentile of 36% over the last 10 years [2][9] - The strong performance of Hong Kong banks is attributed to active trading and continuous foreign capital inflow, driven by a weakening US dollar and increased southbound capital investments [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hong Kong banking sector index rose by 0.18%, ranking 15th among 30 sectors during the holiday [2] - Local banks in Hong Kong showed positive growth, with East Asia Bank, Dah Sing Bank Group, and Weihai Bank leading in gains [2][6] AH Premium Analysis - The AH premium has significantly narrowed since early 2026, with a correlation of 0.95 between the US dollar index and AH premium trends over the past 15 years [2][7] - Southbound capital has net purchased HKD 17.1 billion in Hong Kong banks since the beginning of 2026, with major inflows into China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank [2][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for bank stocks in 2026, emphasizing the upcoming earnings report season in March and April, which typically attracts market attention to sectors with predictable earnings [2] - A "New Momentum Portfolio" is recommended, focusing on banks with potential for significant value recovery, including major state-owned banks and select smaller banks [3]