GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-02-23 10:50Tariff Overview - As of November 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached approximately 9.8%, the highest since 1946, marking an increase of 7.4 percentage points from the average of 2.4% in 2023 and 2024[9][10] - The actual tariff rate for imports from China peaked at 30.9%, with a previous high of 45.6% in May 2025, while Mexico and Canada faced much lower rates of 4.2% and 3.7% respectively[10][14] Trade Impact - The actual tariff increase for China and India was significant, with China's rate rising by 20.2 percentage points and India's by 17.3 percentage points compared to the end of 2024[19] - Steel and aluminum products saw the largest tariff increases, with rates rising over 30 percentage points, while most other key imports experienced increases of less than 10 percentage points[23][24] Trade Structure Changes - U.S. imports from Asia decreased significantly, while imports from Europe increased, with Mexico becoming the largest source of imports, surpassing China[32][33] - By November 2025, U.S. imports from China had dropped to 9.1% of total imports, down from 21.4% in 2017, while imports from Mexico rose to 15.5%[47] Export Dynamics - Despite tariff pressures, China's global export share remained stable at around 16%, maintaining its position as the largest exporter[27] - China's exports to the U.S. decreased significantly, with a drop in share from 19.0% in 2017 to 11.1% in 2025, while exports to Southeast Asia and the Middle East increased[47] Product-Specific Tariff Effects - The highest tariffs were observed on aluminum and steel products, at 40.8% and 38.8% respectively, but these products accounted for only 2% of U.S. imports[15][23] - Key imported goods such as machinery and pharmaceuticals faced relatively low tariffs, with rates below 10%[15][24]