转债事件点评：把握春季行情下半场

Core Insights - The report suggests adopting a "steady first, with growth in mind" approach to maintain gains in the second half of the spring market and to reserve space for future positioning [2][15] - The spring market of 2026 began on December 17, 2025, driven by favorable policies and early capital allocation, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 17 consecutive days of gains [9][13] - The convertible bond market experienced rapid growth followed by volatility, with median prices and conversion premiums reaching historical highs, indicating a significant reduction in the safety cushion of bonds [9][10] Market Trends - Historical data from 2017 to 2025 indicates that the market typically experiences a "rise then fall" pattern from the Spring Festival to the National People's Congress (NPC) [13][14] - The report highlights that during the period from the Spring Festival to the NPC, the market is likely to see a "spring surge," with small-cap growth stocks outperforming, particularly in TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [13][14] - As the NPC approaches, the market may shift towards defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and utilities, with high valuations in convertible bonds facing potential compression due to stock adjustments [13][14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy, transitioning from aggressive profit-seeking to balancing returns and risks as the market moves into the NPC and Q1 earnings preview phase [15] - It emphasizes the importance of selecting convertible bonds with solid performance and reasonable pricing, while also considering high-quality, high-priced convertible bonds with clear growth prospects [15] - The report identifies sectors such as AI computing, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and post-cycle industries like consumption and real estate as favorable for convertible bonds due to improving supply-demand dynamics and favorable policy catalysts [15]