鸡蛋周报：筑底思路，暂时观望-20260223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the opening price of eggs was neutral. The overall inventory accumulation was limited, and the market sales were average. The supply side still needed to pay attention to the scale of molting and cold - storage egg purchases. It was expected that the short - term spot price decline was limited. The near - month futures contract had a bottom - building trend after a low opening. It was recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading and wait for contradictions to accumulate. For the far - end, due to the lower - than - expected decline in production capacity, valuation pressure still needed attention [11][13] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: After the holiday, the opening price of eggs was neutral. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan was 2.8 yuan/jin, down 0.3 yuan/jin from before the holiday. Inventory accumulation was small, market sales were average, and there was a sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices. Short - term egg prices were expected to be stable, with a slight increase in some areas [12] - Restocking and Culling: In January, the restocking volume was 86.44 million, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% and a month - on - month increase of 9.2%. The culling of laying hens slowed down, and the average chicken age stopped falling and rebounded to 497 days [12] - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of January, the inventory of laying hens was 1.342 billion, lower than the previous value but higher than expected. It was expected to peak and decline gradually, dropping to 1.289 billion by June, a decline of 3.9% [12] - Demand Side: Consumption was sluggish in the early post - holiday period, but as downstream enterprises resumed work, the market's inventory - building sentiment increased, and overall demand might gradually improve, but the improvement space was limited [12] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it was recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage trading, there was no recommendation for the time being [14] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: After the holiday, the opening price of eggs was neutral, with prices in different regions showing a decline compared to before the holiday. Inventory accumulation was small, and short - term prices were expected to be stable with a slight increase in some areas [21] - Basis and Spread: The basis returned to normal after the sharp decline in spot prices, and the monthly spread was suitable for reverse arbitrage [24] - Culled Chicken Price: As egg prices rebounded from low levels and farming became profitable, farmers were reluctant to sell, leading to an increase in culled chicken prices and chicken age [27] - Chick and Pullet Price: Due to the increase in restocking sentiment, chick and pullet prices rose from low levels [34] 3.3 Supply Side - Laying Hen Restocking: In January, the restocking volume was 86.44 million, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% and a month - on - month increase of 9.2%. Restocking sentiment was higher than the previous month [34] - Culled Chicken Sales: The culling of laying hens slowed down, and the chicken age stopped falling and rebounded to 497 days, mainly due to the profitability of the farming end [37] - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of January, the inventory of laying hens was 1.342 billion, lower than the previous value but higher than expected. It was expected to drop to 1.289 billion by June, a decline of 3.9% [39][42] 3.4 Demand Side - After the holiday, overall consumption was sluggish at first, but as downstream enterprises resumed work, the market's inventory - building sentiment increased, and overall demand might gradually improve, but the space for improvement was limited [47] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost was lower year - on - year and increased month - on - month. After the increase in spot prices, the farming profit significantly recovered to the normal seasonal level [52] 3.6 Inventory Side - Before the holiday, the inventory increased significantly, indicating a large supply scale [57]