聚烯烃周报：低利润停工幅度更大，逢低做多PP5-9价差-20260223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Spring Festival, crude oil fluctuated significantly, and polyolefins followed the trend. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side of PE faced new capacity coming online and large import volumes, resulting in a weaker short - term rebound compared to PP. During the Spring Festival, the upstream capacity utilization rate decreased seasonally. The PP2605 contract had no new capacity pressure, and the profit of BOPP on the demand side was better than in previous years, which might become an important marginal variable on the demand side. The alleviation of supply - side pressure might help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound [17][18]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on the PP2605 - PP2609 spread (positive spread strategy) [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Information: During the Spring Festival, crude oil fluctuated significantly, and polyolefins followed the trend. The weekly decline of polyethylene was in the order of spot > futures > cost, and for polypropylene, it was also spot > futures > cost. The cost side rebounded, with WTI crude oil down - 0.78%, Brent crude oil down - 0.09%, coal price up 1.88%, methanol down - 1.00%, ethylene up 1.35%, propylene up 0.23%, and propane up 4.19% [15]. - Supply Side: PE capacity utilization was 88.16%, up 0.99% week - on - week, up 1.92% year - on - year, and down - 6.57% compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization was 76.61%, up 2.27% week - on - week, down - 4.55% year - on - year, and down - 17.81% compared to the five - year average [15]. - Import and Export: In December, domestic PE imports were 1.3299 million tons, up 25.21% month - on - month and up 4.62% year - on - year. PP imports were 205,800 tons, up 14.81% month - on - month and down - 4.83% year - on - year. Import profits decreased, and the supply of PE from North America decreased, reducing the pressure on the import side. In December, PE exports were 92,100 tons, up 7.27% month - on - month and up 58.30% year - on - year. PP exports were 230,500 tons, up 2.89% month - on - month and up 29.81% year - on - year. The continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate put pressure on the import side [15]. - Demand Side: The downstream operating rate of PE was 31.00%, down - 8.09% week - on - week and up 13.39% year - on - year. The downstream operating rate of PP was 38.66%, down - 22.43% week - on - week and down - 11.37% year - on - year. The seasonal off - season arrived, and there were no bright spots in the downstream operation of polyolefins [16]. - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory was 343,700 tons, with a de - stocking of - 9.48% week - on - week and - 37.57% compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory was 23,700 tons, with an inventory build - up of 2.11%. PP production enterprise inventory was 391,200 tons, with a de - stocking of - 5.92% week - on - week and - 42.42% compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory was 176,700 tons, with a de - stocking of - 3.55%; PP port inventory was 72,900 tons, with an inventory build - up of 14.44%. Coal - based enterprises significantly reduced their inventories [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: The recommended strategy is to go long on the PP2605 - PP2609 spread (positive spread strategy). The predicted trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is 6,700 - 7,000, and for polypropylene (PP2605) is 6,600 - 6,900 [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Multiple figures are presented, including the term structure, prices, basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of LLDPE and PP, as well as the spreads between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, PP - 3MA, and LL - PVC [30][44][58][62]. 3.3 Cost Side - The oil - based cost stopped falling and rebounded. Multiple figures show the prices of WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, propane, and other raw materials, as well as related spreads, registered warehouse receipts, and the supply and demand situation of LPG [67][74][76][80][82][84][86][90][95][97][99][105][108][110][112][114][116][120]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - Raw Material Proportion: The proportion of raw materials for PE production includes 80.00% oil - based, 12.00% light - hydrocarbon - based, 5.00% coal - based, 2.00% methanol - based, and 1.00% purchased ethylene [126]. - Capacity and Production: In 2026, there are multiple domestic polyethylene production projects planned to be put into operation, with a total of 500,000 tons already in production and 5.2 million tons yet to be put into operation. The capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, and production volume of PE are also presented in figures [130][131][133][135][138]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export - Inventory: The coal - based inventory of PE rebounded from a low level. Figures show the inventory of production enterprises, two - oil enterprises, coal - based enterprises, and traders, as well as the inventory - to - sales ratio and total inventory forecast [150][153][154][155]. - Import - Export: Figures show the import sources, import volume, and import profit of LLDPE, as well as the import volume and year - to - date import volume of PE [157][159]. 3.6 Polyethylene Demand Side - Downstream Demand Proportion: The downstream demand of LLDPE is mainly for packaging film (51.00%), followed by hollow products (12.31%), pipes (11.65%), injection molding (10.00%), agricultural film (7.03%), drawing (4.51%), and wires and cables (3.50%) [164]. - Operating Rate and Inventory: Figures show the downstream total operating rate, packaging film available days, agricultural film order days, agricultural film raw material inventory, and downstream raw material and finished product inventories of PE [173][177][179]. 3.7 Polypropylene Supply Side - Raw Material Proportion: The proportion of raw materials for PP production includes 53.00% oil - based, 25.00% PDH - based, 18.00% coal - based, 2.00% methanol - based, and 2.00% purchased propylene [185]. - Capacity and Production: In 2026, there are multiple domestic polypropylene production projects planned to be put into operation, with a total of 0 tons already in production and 4.37 million tons yet to be put into operation. The capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, and production volume of PP are also presented in figures [190][192][193][195][198]. 3.8 Polypropylene Inventory and Import - Export - Inventory: Figures show the inventory - to - sales ratio, total inventory forecast, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, PDH - based enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory of PP [205][208][212][216]. - Import - Export: Figures show the import volume, import profit, export country composition, export volume, and export profit of PP [219][221][222]. 3.9 Polypropylene Demand Side - Downstream Demand Proportion: The downstream demand of PP is mainly for drawing (34.00%), followed by high - and low - melt copolymer (24.00%), injection molding (17.00%), BOPP (6.00%), high - melt fiber (6.00%), transparent materials (5.00%), pipes (5.00%), and CPP (3.00%) [227]. - Operating Rate and Inventory: Figures show the downstream total operating rate, injection - molding operating rate, pipe operating rate, plastic - weaving operating rate, and the raw material and finished product inventories of plastic - weaving and BOPP of PP [228][236][244][247].