贸易专题分析报告IEEPA被判越权会产生什么影响？

Political Impact - The ruling against IEEPA undermines Trump's core political asset of tariff policy, potentially diminishing his negotiating power and influence[6] - Without alternative legal pathways to reinstate tariffs, Trump may be perceived as a "lame duck"[7] Economic Impact - Estimated cumulative tariffs collected under IEEPA could reach approximately $170 billion by February 20, 2026, with reduced tariff revenue and potential refunds likely to increase the fiscal deficit[7] - The market initially reacted positively, with the S&P 500 rising about 0.6% and the Nasdaq increasing approximately 1% following the ruling, indicating expectations of improved inflation and corporate earnings[24] Diplomatic Impact - The ruling may weaken the credibility of trade frameworks that rely on tariffs, leading trade partners to reassess their commitments until a new legal basis is established[7] - Countries with existing agreements may slow down their implementation processes, particularly those without clear execution frameworks[21] Policy Response - The Trump administration plans to utilize Section 122 tariffs as a transitional measure, imposing a 15% global tariff effective February 24, 2026, for a maximum of 150 days[8] - The USTR is expected to expedite Section 301 investigations to establish a sustainable tariff system before the expiration of the 122 tariffs[9] Market Outlook - The market is likely to experience a "marginal easing—then tightening" path, benefiting from initial tariff cancellation expectations but facing pressure as alternative tariff measures are implemented[4] - The effective tariff rate on China is projected to remain around 30%, despite a nominal decrease due to the shift from IEEPA to Section 122 tariffs[26] Risk Factors - Potential chaos if U.S. trade partners refuse to acknowledge the outcomes of interim trade negotiations[5] - The pace of tax refunds exceeding expectations could lead to a short-term spike in the fiscal deficit, impacting U.S. debt and dollar valuation[36] - If new tariff proposals are implemented more swiftly than anticipated, it could counteract the positive effects of the Supreme Court ruling[36]