2026-02-24：五矿期货农产品早报-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the northern hemisphere gradually finishes the sugar - cane crushing season in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In China, the supply of imported sugar is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [2]. - For cotton, the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on the illegal tariff policy and the high single - week export of U.S. cotton from February 5th to 12th led to a sharp rebound in U.S. cotton prices. However, Trump's decision to raise the global import tariff from 10% to 15% on February 21st is negative for cotton prices. In the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and positive macro - expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the downstream industry chain after the Spring Festival [7]. - For soybeans, the expectation of China's increased purchase of U.S. soybeans has pushed up the CBOT soybean price. For China, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the rising U.S. soybean price raises the import cost. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - For oils and fats, driven by the bio - diesel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate. The medium - term outlook for oil and fat prices is positive. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [14]. - For eggs, after the Spring Festival, the opening price is neutral, the overall inventory accumulation is limited, and the market sales are average. The supply side needs to pay attention to the scale of molting and cold - storage egg purchases. It is expected that the short - term spot price decline is limited. The near - month futures contract may form a bottom after a low - opening. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading and wait for the accumulation of contradictions. For the far - end contract, under the background that the production capacity decline is less than expected, attention should be paid to the valuation pressure [17]. - For pigs, before the Spring Festival, farmers actively sold pigs, resulting in a significant decrease in the average weight and a low inventory in散户 pens. After the Spring Festival, the reluctance to sell due to losses still exists, and the high price difference between fat and standard pigs may lead to secondary fattening and inventory - building behaviors. The decline of the spot price is limited, which may support the near - month futures contract to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for the further accumulation and fermentation of contradictions [20]. Summary by Category Sugar - Market Information: As of the week of February 18th, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased from 53 to 43, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased from 1.83 million tons to 1.577 million tons. StoneX predicts a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In January 2026, China produced 3.21 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative production in the 2025/26 season was 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 602,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume was 2.7 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 39.1% [2]. Cotton - Market Information: From February 5th to 12th, the U.S. exported 106,800 tons of cotton in the current year, with a cumulative export of 1.9899 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 142,900 tons. The spinning mill's operating rate as of February 6th was 60.5%, a 3.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.53 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous week. The predicted global cotton production in 2025/26 is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December prediction and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year [4]. Soybeans - Market Information: From February 5th to 12th, the U.S. exported 800,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 35.37 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.63 million tons. As of February 14th, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 24.7%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 2.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 30th to February 6th, the domestic sample soybean arrival volume was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons from the previous week [8]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Indonesia plans to increase its palm oil exports to the U.S. to 3 million tons in the next two years. The tariff between the U.S. and Indonesia has been reduced from 32% to 19%. In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons from the previous month but an increase of 340,000 tons from the same period last year. The export volume was 1.48 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month and 320,000 tons from the same period last year [11]. Eggs - Market Information: After the Spring Festival, the opening price of eggs was neutral. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan was 2.8 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.3 yuan per catty from before the festival. The inventory accumulation was not large, the market sales were average, and there was a reluctance to sell at low prices. It is expected that the short - term egg price will be stable, with a slight upward trend in some areas [16]. Pigs - Market Information: After the Spring Festival, the mainstream pig price decreased, which was in line with expectations. In the north, the demand from slaughterhouses was limited, the supply was sufficient, and the price decline was large. In the south, the local pig slaughter volume had not fully recovered, and the price decline was smaller than that in the north. After continuous price cuts in some areas, farmers were reluctant to sell, and with the increase in the number of slaughterhouses resuming work, the demand improved. In the short term, the decline of the pig price in the north may narrow, while the supply in the south continues to increase, and the pig price may continue to fall [19].