春节大事8看点：有喜有忧

Global Economic and Political Developments - Progress in US-Iran negotiations, but significant disagreements remain, with potential for military conflict in the short term[2] - Trump's IEEPA tariffs ruled unconstitutional, leading to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and a shift towards a new tariff framework[14] - China submitted a position paper to the WTO emphasizing multilateralism and the need for reforms[17] US Economic Performance - US Q4 2025 GDP growth slowed to 2.2%, significantly below expectations, primarily due to government shutdown impacts[3] - Private consumption and investment contributed positively to GDP, while government spending negatively impacted it by nearly 1 percentage point[23] - January 2026 non-farm payrolls showed a gain of 130,000 jobs, with unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, indicating labor market resilience[24] Monetary Policy Outlook - Fed's January FOMC minutes revealed a cautious stance on future rate cuts, with expectations for 2.22 rate cuts in 2026, down from 2.53[30] - Domestic monetary policy remains accommodative, but future rate cuts may depend on further economic weakening[35] Market Trends - Global stock markets generally rose, with the US dollar index increasing by 0.9% to 97.74, while the offshore RMB strengthened[9] - January CPI in the US fell to 2.4%, indicating a mixed inflation outlook, with core inflation pressures persisting[24] Domestic Economic Indicators - January credit data showed insufficient "opening red" performance, with a notable decline in new home sales by 32.5% year-on-year[5] - The tourism sector showed recovery, with inter-regional travel increasing by 6.2% compared to the previous year, although movie box office revenues dropped significantly[7]