原油：地缘升温，短期偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - The report focuses on the current situation of the crude oil market, including price changes, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news. It indicates that geopolitical factors are heating up, and the short - term crude oil market is expected to be strong [1] Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI 3 - month crude oil futures closed down $0.04 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%, at $66.39 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 04 closed up $0.10 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%, at $71.76 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures closed down $20.30, a decline of 4.22%, at $460.70 per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Different types of crude oils have different current states and spread changes. For example, Arab Extra Light's spread closed at -$4.66, with a month - on - month decline due to a significant expansion of the crude oil price disadvantage. Vasconia's spread turned positive, with a significant month - on - month increase driven by a deep discount in crude oil price [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties' spread closed at -$2.51, with a month - on - month decline due to disadvantages in refining value and crude oil price compared to Bonny Light. Saharan Blend's spread widened significantly, with a positive refining value, lower freight, and a significant price advantage [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH's spread opened at $1.74, with a month - on - month increase. The high trans - Atlantic freight was offset by a significant crude oil price advantage. Azeri Light's spread increased significantly, driven by a strong refining value and a significant price advantage [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend's spread closed at -$20.79, with a month - on - month increase (the negative value decreased) because the relative price advantage of the benchmark oil Urals weakened. Similar reasons led to the increase in the spreads of other crude oils in the region [6] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri's spread closed at -$2.03, with a month - on - month decline due to a significantly negative refining value. Napo's spread opened at $8.57, narrowing month - on - month but still at a high level, driven by a large discount in crude oil price relative to Dubai [7] Key Market News - The Trump administration is considering new "national security tariffs" on six industries. The National Energy Administration will release and implement a new energy system and a series of sub - field energy plans. Regarding the Iran issue, Trump prefers to reach an agreement with Iran rather than going to war. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the EU Foreign Affairs Council failed to reach an agreement on a new round of sanctions against Russia [10] Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral state. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10][11]