招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260224

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Maintain a bullish view on precious metals, especially gold, while advising caution when participating in silver due to high speculative demand and increased volatility [1] - For black industry commodities, expect a slightly higher opening followed by a volatile trend, and recommend a wait - and - see approach [2][3] - For agricultural products, different varieties have different trends. For example, soybeans are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to export and production; corn is expected to be volatile in the short - term; oils and fats are expected to be weak; sugar is expected to be in a range - bound pattern; cotton can be bought on dips; eggs and hogs are expected to be weak [4][5] - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trading strategies. For example, LLDPE, PP, and EB are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, PX can be multi - allocated in the medium - term, PTA can take profit appropriately, MEG can be considered for phased long positions, and for crude oil, it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [6][7][8] Summary by Directory Gold Market - Market performance: During the Spring Festival, gold prices first declined and then rose, with an over 2% single - day increase on February 20. Silver prices also rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a more than 7% single - day increase and breaking through $87 per ounce on Monday [1] - Fundamentals: Geopolitical premiums increased due to Trump's statement on military strikes and previous events. Policy uncertainties and trade - war concerns led to an influx of safe - haven funds. There were changes in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings [1] - Trading strategy: Maintain a bullish view on precious metals, especially gold, and advise caution for silver [1] Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main contract 2605 closed at 3055 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the festival, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [2] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant. The inventory of billets increased significantly during the festival. The valuation of rebar and hot - rolled coils is differentiated. External news is slightly positive [2] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the reference range for RB05 being 3040 - 3100 [2] Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main contract 2605 closed at 746 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the festival, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. Singapore swaps fell 1.3% to $96 per ton during the holiday [2] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The iron - water output is basically the same year - on - year. The port inventory is close to 1.7 billion tons, and the structural contradiction persists. External news is slightly positive [2] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the reference range for I05 being 735 - 765 [3] Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main contract 2605 closed at 1121 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the festival, unchanged from the previous night - session closing price [3] - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profits are poor, and the blast - furnace output may decline slightly. The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there are no further plans. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the futures valuation is high. External news is slightly positive [3] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the reference range for JM05 being 1090 - 1140 [3] Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: The CBOT soybeans fell overnight, and there are concerns about US soybean exports [4] - Fundamentals: There is an expected bumper harvest in South America on the supply side. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, but there are potential concerns about exports due to tariff policies. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [4] - Trading strategy: US soybeans will enter a volatile period, and attention should be paid to exports and South American production. The domestic market is also expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to customs policies and South American production [4] Corn - Market performance: The corn spot price rose slightly during the Spring Festival compared with before the festival [4] - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not large. However, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain after the temperature rises. Downstream enterprises' inventories are at the same level as the same period, and the port inventories are low, but the downstream is in a loss state, and the enthusiasm for building inventories after the festival may be low [4] - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term as the purchase and sale have not fully recovered [4] Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil is in a weak seasonal period in the short - term [4] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the Malaysian production in January decreased by 14% month - on - month. On the demand side, the export improved month - on - month, but ITS estimated that the export from February 1 - 20 decreased by 9% month - on - month. The supply - demand is weak in this stage [4] - Trading strategy: Oils and fats are weak. The resonance of the end of the weak seasonal production reduction and the biodiesel expectation is weakened. An anti - arbitrage structure strategy can be adopted. Attention should be paid to future production and biodiesel policies [4] Sugar - Market performance: The raw sugar first fell and then rose during the Spring Festival, and is in a range - bound pattern [4] - Fundamentals: Internationally, the pricing of the northern hemisphere's production increase has been completed. The domestic supply is more abundant, and the industrial inventory is expected to reach the highest level in recent years after March. However, it is affected by storage and quota policies [4] - Trading strategy: The price will maintain a range - bound pattern between 5000 - 5300 yuan/ton [4] Cotton - Market performance: The ICE US cotton futures price rose and then fell overnight, and the international crude oil futures price fluctuated upward [5] - Fundamentals: Internationally, there are concerns about tariff policies, which may affect global cotton exports. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price maintained an upward trend before the Spring Festival, and there was strong buying support below. The domestic spot basis was supported, and the sales progress slowed down before the festival [5] - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, with the price range reference of 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [5] Eggs - Market performance: The egg spot price decreased during the Spring Festival compared with before the festival [5] - Fundamentals: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and the egg price is expected to be low [5] - Trading strategy: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak. Industrial customers are advised to pay attention to hedging opportunities when the price is high [5] Hogs - Market performance: The national hog price mostly decreased during the Spring Festival compared with before the festival, with a larger decline in the north and stability in the south [5] - Fundamentals: According to the seasonal pattern, the slaughter volume will increase after the festival, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The spot and futures prices are expected to be weak [5] - Trading strategy: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [5] Energy and Chemical LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly before the festival. The spot price in North China was 6530 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there are no new device productions in the first half of the year, and the domestic supply pressure eases. The import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, the downstream is on holiday, and the demand is weak, but there will be a peak demand season in March and April [6] - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak. Due to the sharp rise in crude oil during the holiday, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran event [6] PX and PTA - Market performance: The CFR PTA price in China was $926 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA was 5180 yuan/ton before the festival, with a spot basis of - 73 yuan/ton [6] - Fundamentals: The overall supply of PX is at a historical high level. The supply of PTA is at a medium level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the inventory pressure is not large. The profit of polyester products has improved. The supply - demand of PX and PTA accumulates inventory [6] - Trading strategy: Maintain a long - term multi - allocation view on PX and pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern improves. The processing fee has reached a high level, and appropriate profit - taking is recommended [6][7] PP - Market performance: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly before the festival. The spot price in East China was 6550 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [7] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the new device production decreases in the first half of the year, and the domestic supply gradually increases. On the demand side, the downstream is on holiday, and the start - up rate is low, and it will gradually resume work after the Lantern Festival [7] - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak. Due to the sharp rise in crude oil during the holiday, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. In the long - term, the new device production decreases in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern improves slightly but the contradiction is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies [7] MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG was 3675 yuan/ton before the festival, with a spot basis of - 105 yuan/ton [7] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply pressure eases. The inventory in some East China ports has accumulated to about 900,000 tons. The polyester load decreases seasonally, and the inventory pressure is not large. MEG accumulates inventory in February and reduces inventory in March [7] - Trading strategy: The inventory accumulation is fully expected, and it may start to reduce inventory in March. The current valuation is low, and attention should be paid to phased long - position opportunities [7] Crude Oil - Market performance: During the Spring Festival, the focus of foreign - market trading was on the US - Iran relationship. The oil price first fell and then rose [7] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply pressure of Russian oil increases, and the short - term core influence is the US - Iran geopolitical risk. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is large. On the demand side, the heating demand in the US increased in February but will decline in March, and the gasoline demand is in the off - season [7] - Trading strategy: Although the fundamentals are in surplus, the current trading focus is on the US - Iran geopolitical risk, with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait for the oil price to reach a high point and buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [7] Styrene - Market performance: The styrene main contract fluctuated slightly before the festival. The spot price in East China was 7570 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere was average. The overseas price rose slightly, and the import window was closed [7][8] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the pure - benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and the supply - demand pattern will improve in February and March. The styrene inventory accumulates during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in February and March. On the demand side, the downstream enterprises' finished - product inventory is high, and the start - up rate is low, and it will resume work after the Lantern Festival [7][8] - Trading strategy: In the short - term, due to the slight accumulation of pure - benzene inventory, the marginal improvement of supply - demand, and the sharp rise in crude oil during the holiday, it is expected to be slightly stronger. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on styrene on dips in the second quarter [7][8]