天然气：寒潮褪去，回归平静

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In January, the average spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub reached $7.72 per million British thermal units, a significant increase from the December average of $4.26 per million British thermal units, hitting the highest nominal monthly average since September 2022. The price increase was mainly driven by abnormally cold weather in most parts of the US, especially in the second half of the month, which led to a surge in heating demand. The "Finn" winter storm further increased heating demand while natural gas production decreased due to the temporary freezing of gas wells. The large inventory consumption in late January means that the US natural gas inventory will be lower than previously expected at the end of the heating season in March. The EIA has raised the price forecast for most of this year due to the inventory reduction. However, the price increase compared to last month's forecast will moderate later this year. The current high prices are expected to stimulate more natural gas - targeted drilling activities, leading to higher natural gas production than previously predicted. As production increases, the EIA has lowered the price forecast for 2027. After the cold snap subsides, the average spot price at Henry Hub is expected to be about $4.40 per million British thermal units, a 5% decrease from last month's forecast, and natural gas prices may return to calm in the future [3][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Gas Price - In January, the average spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub was $7.72 per million British thermal units, a significant increase from December. On January 23, the daily price at this hub set a nominal record of $30.72 per million British thermal units. The price increase was due to cold weather and increased heating demand. The "Finn" winter storm increased demand while production decreased. As of the week ending January 30, the combination of strong demand and production decline led to a record - high single - week inventory draw of 360 billion cubic feet. Futures prices suggest that the market believes the supply - tight situation will be relatively short - lived. On January 28, the February futures settlement price was significantly higher than the March price. On February 2, the newly - listed March 2026 contract plunged 25.7% to $3.24 per million British thermal units, the largest single - day decline in 30 years [5][6] Natural Gas Inventory - The EIA expects the natural gas inventory to be depleted by nearly 2080 billion cubic feet this winter (November to March), 7% higher than the five - year average consumption. The heating degree - days in January were 5% higher than the ten - year average and 12% higher than last month's forecast. It is currently expected that the natural gas inventory at the end of the heating season will be 1% higher than the five - year average, down from last month's forecast of 10% higher. All regions in the US saw a decline in inventory in January. As of the time of writing, the inventories in the East and Midwest were below the five - year average, the South - Central region was close to the average, while the Pacific region was 30% above the average and the Rocky Mountain region was 34% above the average. In the week ending January 30, the natural gas inventory had a record single - week draw of 360 billion cubic feet. The cold snap had a significant impact on the South - Central region, which accounted for 44% of the total US consumption that week. The EIA expects the natural gas inventory to be rebuilt faster than the five - year average during the injection season (April - October), and the inventory is predicted to be in a surplus state compared to the five - year average by the end of the injection season in October [11] Natural Gas Production - The cold snap in January led to a decline in natural gas production. From December to January, the daily average production decreased by 4 billion cubic feet (a 3% decline), mainly due to the continuous cold weather in the Appalachian region in the northeastern US. By early February, most of the production capacity had resumed operation. The EIA predicts that US dry natural gas production will increase by 2% (about 2 billion cubic feet per day) in 2026 and another 1% (about 1 billion cubic feet per day) in 2027. The growth rate is expected to slow down in the first half of 2026 due to weather - related shutdowns and insufficient pipeline capacity outside the Permian Basin. With the new pipeline capacity in the Permian Basin coming into operation in the second half of 2026, production is expected to accelerate. In 2027, the increase in the oil - to - gas ratio in the Permian region and the increase in drilling activities in the Haynesville region driven by rising natural gas prices will jointly promote overall production growth. The EIA currently predicts that the daily production of US dry natural gas will reach 110 billion cubic feet this year and exceed 111 billion cubic feet next year [19]