棉花：预计小幅高开20260224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures fluctuated during the Spring Festival holiday, with a bearish sentiment being mostly priced in. After breaking through 64.2 cents per pound, it rebounded due to short - covering in exports and strong weekly US cotton data [2]. - The outlook for the US cotton planting area in 2026 is still divided. The National Cotton Council (NCC) estimates a 3.2% year - on - year decrease to 9 million acres, while the US Agricultural Outlook Forum estimates 9.4 million acres [2]. - The overall basis of domestic cotton spot is stable, with different basis ranges for different regions and cotton grades [2]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data - CF2605 closed at 14,740 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.34%, trading volume of 308,077 lots (down 9,834 from the previous day), and an open interest of 1,007,658 lots (down 27,068) [1]. - CY2605 closed at 20,530 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.61%, trading volume of 0 lots (down 1,999), and an open interest of 0 lots (up 1,045) [1]. - ICE US Cotton 5 closed at 65.22 cents per pound with a daily decline of 0.50% [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data - Zhengzhou cotton had 11,001 warehouse receipts (up 112) and 1,072 valid forecasts (down 84) [1]. - Cotton yarn had 0 warehouse receipts and 38 valid forecasts (down 24) [1]. - Spot Price Data - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,884 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,810 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The price in Shandong was 16,129 yuan/ton (down 50, - 0.31%), and in Hebei was 16,110 yuan/ton (down 56, - 0.35%) [1]. - The 3128B index was 16,088 yuan/ton (down 31, - 0.19%), and the Cotlook:A index was 74.15 cents per pound (up 0.61%) [1]. - The price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,520 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price was 21,058 yuan/ton (down 8, - 0.04%) [1]. - Spread Data - The CF3 - 5 spread was 140 yuan/ton, up 70 from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot - The basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 is mainly in the range of CF05 + 1000 - 1100, and more quotes are above CF05 + 1100, for pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - The sales basis of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly in the range of CF05 + 1250 - 1450, for pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton in Shandong and Henan warehouses (3130/30, micronaire value above 4, impurity within 3) is mostly in the range of CF05 + 1650 - 1800, and some are lower, for pick - up in the inland [2]. - US Cotton - ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose during the Spring Festival holiday. There is a divergence in the outlook for the 2026 US cotton planting area [2]. - The NCC estimates a 3.2% year - on - year decrease in the planting area to 9 million acres, while the US Agricultural Outlook Forum estimates 9.4 million acres [2]. - ICE cotton's near - month contract is affected by increasing warehouse receipts and a large number of un - priced contracts from cotton farmers. However, the bearish factors have been mostly priced in, and it rebounded from the low level [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [5]