烧碱：成本支撑，震荡为主

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is mainly in shock with cost support. After the Spring Festival, there is limited room for a sharp short - term rise due to high inventory and large delivery pressure. The market will first deal with delivery pressure and then consider future production cut expectations and improved downstream demand. Overall, caustic soda faces a situation of cost support and expected large - scale production cuts, but inventory and near - month delivery pressure need attention after the holiday [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On February 24, 2026, the 05 - contract futures price was 2243, the cheapest deliverable spot 32 - alkali price in Shandong was 640, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price was 2000, and the basis was - 243 [1] 3.2 Spot News - During the Spring Festival, there was no change in the caustic soda spot, and liquid chlorine still maintained subsidies [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - During the Spring Festival, liquid chlorine remained weak, with Shandong liquid chlorine prices maintaining subsidies, which supported caustic soda prices. After the Spring Festival, with high caustic soda inventory, the short - term sharp rise space is limited. There are 895 caustic soda warehouse receipts, and the delivery pressure is still large. The market may first trade the delivery pressure and then consider future production cut expectations and improved downstream demand. From the fundamental perspective, the supply - demand structure of alumina is gradually reversing with production cuts, and attention should be paid to the incremental demand brought by large - scale capacity expansion. Non - aluminum downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and the rigid demand will continue to pick up in March, while exports remain strong. On the supply side, the Shandong spot price is close to the cash - flow cost, and the expectation of production cuts and load reduction after March is increasing [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The caustic soda trend intensity is 0, with the range of [-2, 2] and classifications of weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, and strong, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4]