橡胶：震荡偏强20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - From the data of the past five years, natural rubber prices generally rise after the Spring Festival. In 2026, the pre - festival domestic natural rubber Thai mixed futures weekly average price was 15,308 yuan/ton, and the post - festival average price is expected to be 15,550 yuan/ton, with an expected increase of 1.58%. The main reasons are that the global natural rubber producing areas enter the low - supply stage, raw material prices are prone to rise and difficult to fall, the supply and cost sides boost the natural rubber market, and downstream tire and rubber product enterprises gradually resume work and production, with an expected recovery in demand. However, recent macro - sentiment has a strong impact, and the linkage of the commodity market is increasing, so continuous attention should be paid to the disturbance of the commodity atmosphere on rubber prices [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The rubber main contract's daily closing price was 16,315 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 165,470 lots, a decrease of 15,208 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 140,235 lots, a decrease of 12,467 lots; the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 112,570 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 276 lots [1] - Spread Data: The basis of spot - futures main contract increased by 35 to - 165; the basis of mixed - futures main contract increased by 105 to - 995; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 increased by 25 to 120; among the outer - market quotes, RSS3 increased by 10 to 2,260 US dollars/ton, while STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 decreased by 15, 15, and 25 US dollars/ton respectively; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber decreased by 200 to 12,850 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 50 to 12,450 yuan/ton [1] - Spot Market: In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased by 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 5 - 10 US dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rubber is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1] 3.3 Industry News - In January 2026, the average price of Chinese natural rubber Thai mixed was 15,033 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.42%; the average price of full - latex was 15,767 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.07%; the average price of natural latex was 11,717 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.13%. During the Spring Festival, the prices of various rubber types in the domestic natural rubber market basically remained stable with fluctuations. After the festival, the supply contraction provides support for rubber prices, and the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises and the overall trend of bulk commodities may determine the direction of natural rubber prices [3]