铜：不确定性增强，价格震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of copper has increased, and the price is fluctuating [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 100,380 with a daily decline of 1.91%, and the closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,901 with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 317,735, an increase of 74,706 from the previous day, and the position was 553,829, a decrease of 6,837. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,678, a decrease of 10,436, and the position was 318,000, a decrease of 4,000 [1] - Inventory Data: The inventory of Shanghai copper was 196,680, an increase of 9,501 from the previous day, and the inventory of LME copper was 235,150, an increase of 38,500. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper was 4.37%, a decrease of 6.64% [1] - Spread Data: The LME copper premium was -83.05, an increase of 11.66 from the previous day. The bonded warehouse receipt premium was 33, a decrease of 1, and the bonded bill of lading premium was 35, a decrease of 2. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 88,600, a decrease of 1,300. The spot - futures near - month spread was 0, an increase of 60; the near - month contract to the first - continuous contract spread was -510, a decrease of 150; the cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the first - continuous contract was 227. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was -509, an increase of 466; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - three contract and LME 3M was -107, an increase of 583; the spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 3,037, a decrease of 61; the import profit and loss of recycled copper was 655, an increase of 23 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Macro News: Concerns about AI have intensified, and the risk of a tariff war has reignited. The three major US stock indexes closed down by at least about 1%. The US Customs will stop collecting tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court from February 24. The US Democratic Party will prevent any attempt to extend tariffs and promote a mandatory refund plan. The European Parliament has suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement [1][3] - Industry News: Harmony Gold Company said that the newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two years for transformation. Chilean state - owned miner Codelco's copper production in December 2025 increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 181,400 tons. In December 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2506 million tons, the consumption was 2.1526 million tons, and the supply surplus was 98,000 tons [1][3]