宁证期货今日早评-20260224

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the Spring Festival, steel prices are expected to have a short - term "good start" under the inertia of steel mills' price hikes, low inventory, and cost support, but the market will likely enter a shock - adjustment stage later, and the sustainability of the market depends on the actual release intensity of demand [1] - During the holiday, the U.S. stock market fluctuated downward, and the market's risk appetite weakened. The bullish power of silver is less than that of gold. Silver follows gold and fluctuates passively, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - Due to the unclear situation between the U.S. and Iran during the holiday, crude oil has obtained geopolitical premium. The global crude oil supply is likely to be in surplus, and short - term trading is recommended [3] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate strongly. The near - term is stable, and the long - term is restricted by weather factors and relatively low raw material inventory [4] - PTA has a large de - stocking pressure due to weak demand, but the rising oil price provides some support, and short - term trading is recommended [4] - Iron ore prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to supply pressure and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the iron - water production recovery speed and terminal demand [5] - The coking coal and coke market is expected to be stable but weak after the Spring Festival, with basically balanced supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream terminal demand [5][6] - The U.S. tariff policy has brought macro - sentiment disturbances to copper, and the external market's rise during the holiday brings some upward expectations for the domestic market [6] - The global aluminum supply shows a moderate increase, but there are uncertainties in overseas supply. The domestic supply has limited elasticity. The downstream resumption of work after the Spring Festival will be the short - term focus, and the domestic market may open higher [7] - The bond market is short - term bearish and may be bullish in the medium term due to the tight capital situation after the Spring Festival and the stock - bond seesaw effect [7] - Gold is supported by the rising risk - aversion sentiment due to the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policy, but it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's new chairman's policies [8] - The price of live pigs first rose and then fell during the Spring Festival. The downward space of futures prices is limited, and it is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts at a low price [8][9] - Palm oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation with the rising price center, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment and crude oil trends [9] - The price of soybean meal is expected to stabilize, rebound, and oscillate in the short term. The high - yield in South America and export pressure limit its upward space [10] Group 3: Summaries Based on Different Commodities Steel - As of February 20, the building materials market has not started yet. Some key project sites are expected to start construction in the next two days, and most other projects will resume construction after February 22. Steel prices are expected to have a short - term "good start" after the festival, but the market may enter a shock - adjustment stage later [1] Silver - A winter storm in the U.S. Northeast led to the postponement of the first - round voting in Congress until February 24. During the holiday, the U.S. stock market fluctuated downward, and the market's risk appetite weakened. Silver follows gold and fluctuates passively, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] Crude Oil - Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% ad - valorem import tariff on imported goods from February 24, and later planned to raise it to 15%. The U.S. is considering a "limited - scale" military strike against Iran. The global crude oil supply is likely to be in surplus, and short - term trading is recommended [3] Natural Rubber - In 2026, the supply is expected to increase by 2.4% to 1,520 million tons, and the demand is expected to increase by 1.7% to 1,560 million tons. The overseas production areas are entering the production - reduction period, and the downstream demand is expected to recover after the holiday. It is expected to oscillate strongly [4] PTA - The PTA social inventory is 341.5 million tons, an increase of 15.84 million tons from the previous period. The demand is weak, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The rising oil price provides some support, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Iron Ore - The Singapore iron ore swap price weakened slightly during the Spring Festival, a 2.46% decline from before the festival. The supply pressure and weak demand are the main factors. The iron - water production is expected to resume after the festival, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [5] Coking Coal and Coke - The Sino - Mongolian border reopened on February 23. The domestic coking coal mines are expected to resume production quickly after the Lantern Festival. The supply and demand are basically balanced, but the inventory pressure may increase if the downstream demand recovers slowly, and the market is expected to be stable but weak [5][6] Copper - The U.S. tariff policy has changed dramatically, but copper is exempted. The process has increased the market's concern about the uncertainty of the global trade environment, and the external market's rise during the holiday brings some upward expectations for the domestic market [6] Aluminum - The global primary aluminum production in January 2026 was 6.317 billion tons, showing a moderate increase. The overseas supply is vulnerable, and the domestic supply has limited elasticity. The downstream resumption of work after the Spring Festival will be the short - term focus, and the domestic market may open higher [7] Short - term Treasury Bonds - There will be 225.24 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, 30 billion yuan of MLF, and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit due in the first week after the Spring Festival. The bond market is short - term bearish and may be bullish in the medium term [7] Gold - The U.S. tariff policy is uncertain, and the risk - aversion sentiment is rising. Gold is supported, but it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's new chairman's policies [8] Live Pigs - The live pig price first rose and then fell during the Spring Festival. The downward space of futures prices is limited, and it is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts at a low price [8][9] Palm Oil - The production in Malaysia decreased in the first 20 days of February, and Indonesia entered the seasonal production - reduction period. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation with the rising price center [9] Soybean Meal - The U.S. soybean price was strong during the Spring Festival, providing limited cost support. The high - yield in South America and export pressure limit its upward space. The domestic supply is abundant, and the price is expected to stabilize, rebound, and oscillate in the short term [10]