申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] Core Viewpoint of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although prices have rebounded from the lows in late January, they have not fully recovered the previous declines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump as the next Fed Chair is a core disturbance. Macro factors and industry - end fundamentals support the long - term upward trend [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 523.80, 517.10, and 509.20 respectively, with price drops of - 21.35, - 22.15, and - 25.40 and percentage drops of - 3.92%, - 4.11%, and - 4.75%. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 416.80, 410.00, and 409.15 respectively, with price drops of - 13.35, - 17.60, and - 18.45 and percentage drops of - 3.10%, - 4.12%, and - 4.31% [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The open interest for platinum futures is 12639 for all three contracts, and the trading volumes are 6333, 216, and 118 respectively. For palladium futures, the open interest is 4196 for all three contracts, and the trading volumes are 3225, 57, and 93 respectively [1] - Spot Premium: The spot premiums for platinum futures are 1.25, 7.95, and 15.85 respectively, and for palladium futures are - 6.8, 0, and 0.85 respectively [1] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, Lao Fengxiang platinum, Chinese palladium, and Russian palladium are 525.05, 2145.00, 836.00, 960.00, 410.00, and 4123.41 respectively. The price changes are - 15.99, 24.00, 31.00, 0.00, - 9.00, and - 136.93 respectively, and the percentage changes are - 0.030%, 0.011%, 0.039%, 0.000%, - 0.021%, and - 0.032% respectively [1] - Price Ratios: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.28, 1.06, - 6.70, - 14.60, 1.08, and - 6.80 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 1.78, - 2.88, - 9.10, - 11.10, 0.72, and 0.00 [1] Inventory - Platinum and Palladium Inventory: The current NYMEX platinum inventory is 578,195.22 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts are 313,567.94 ounces, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's trading volume is 0.00 (in ten thousand yuan), and the trading volume is 0.00 (in kilograms). The current NYMEX palladium inventory is 186,268.54 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts are 148,317.64 ounces. There are no changes compared to the previous values [1] Related Derivatives and Market Indicators - Market Indicators: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 97.74, 6,837.75, 4.03, 22,627.27, 48,804.06, and 0.00 respectively. The changes compared to the previous values are 0.00, - 71.76, - 0.05, - 258.80, - 821.91, and 0.00 respectively [1] - Futures of Gold and Silver: The current prices of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 1110.10, 1113.46, and 1116.38 respectively, with price drops of - 16.02, - 16.28, and - 15.44. The current prices of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 19782.00, 19570.00, and 19432.00 respectively, with price drops of - 844, - 778, and - 608 [1] Macro News - Fed Policy: The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump - appointed director Milan [2] - Fed Chair Nomination: Trump nominates former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2] - China's Economic Data: In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production expanded, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2] - PBOC Meeting: The People's Bank of China requires promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening regulatory measures, and improving payment services [3] Comments and Strategies - Price Trends: As of February 24, 2026, NYMEX platinum and palladium prices have rebounded from the lows in late January, but have not fully recovered the previous declines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh has short - term impacts on prices [4] - Macro Factors: The judicial investigation of Powell shakes the US dollar's credit, the global central bank gold - buying wave continues, and the geopolitical risks in Greenland provide support. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remains unchanged [4] - Industry - End Fundamentals: There is a clear supply - demand gap for platinum, with surging hydrogen energy demand and South African production constraints. Palladium supply is rigid, and demand is supported by hybrid vehicle demand and strict emission policies [4]