电裕求新变，煤紧风正帆

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the coal sector, suggesting a bottom reversal investment opportunity in 2026 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in electricity demand growth for 2025, with thermal power generation experiencing its first negative growth in nearly a decade. Despite high new installations of wind and solar power, the utilization hours are deteriorating [5][6]. - Looking ahead to 2026, while green energy construction is expected to slow, the issue of electricity surplus remains severe. The report anticipates a shift in the coal supply-demand balance from surplus to tightness from 2026 to 2030, indicating a potential reversal in thermal coal prices [2][7]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - In 2025, the total electricity consumption in China exceeded 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, reaching 10,368.2 billion kilowatt-hours, but the growth rate dropped to 5.0%, significantly lower than the nearly 7% growth in 2023 and 2024. This decline is attributed to weak demand due to a warm winter and reduced growth in energy-intensive industries [16][19]. - The electricity elasticity coefficient for 2025 fell to 1.00, the lowest since 2020, reflecting the impact of weak demand and high energy consumption [21][22]. - By the end of 2025, the total installed capacity reached 389.134 million kilowatts, with record high new installations across wind, solar, and thermal power, but the utilization hours for thermal power saw the largest decline since 2016 [23][29]. Outlook for 2026 - The report forecasts a recovery in electricity demand growth to 4.5%-5.0% in 2026, driven by industrial electrification and data centers, despite a significant drop in new solar installations [6][42]. - Thermal power generation is expected to maintain a substantial scale, with a projected low single-digit growth in electricity generation, although utilization hours for thermal power are anticipated to decline to 4,010 hours, marking a new low [6][53]. Coal Sector - The report predicts a resilient demand for coal, with thermal coal consumption expected to grow in 2026, and overall coal demand likely to stabilize and rise from 2027 to 2030 [7][62]. - Domestic coal supply growth is expected to be limited, with production checks continuing to play a crucial role in controlling supply, thus supporting coal prices in the long term [7][62]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a reversal in the coal price dilemma, with a forecasted improvement in coal prices to a range of 750-800 yuan per ton in 2026, highlighting investment opportunities in companies with low valuations and significant growth potential [8][62].