股指期货：外部无恙，节后开门红概率更大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas market during the holiday was relatively stable with a slight increase, and the Hong Kong stock market had a slight decline. The overall situation is favorable for the stock market to have a good start after the holiday [3]. - The new changes in the US tariff issue during the holiday are not expected to cause significant disturbances to the overall stock market. The rapid rise of China's robot industry during the holiday is expected to boost the trading enthusiasm of the A-share robot sector and support the market [3]. - As the Two Sessions approach, there may be some trading based on policy expectations, but there is a possibility of a pullback as the meeting nears. Overall, the market after the holiday is expected to be strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Overseas market performance during the holiday: US stocks were relatively strong, especially the rebound of the previously falling technology index. The South Korean stock market in the Japanese and South Korean markets continued to reach new highs. The Hong Kong stock market had a short - term trading during the holiday, rising first and then falling slightly [3]. - Positive factors for the post - holiday stock market: The global geopolitical events and the financial market were stable during the holiday, which has a positive impact on risk preference. The new changes in the US tariff issue are not expected to cause major disturbances, and the rise of the robot industry is expected to boost the market [3]. - Concerns in the later period: Pay attention to geopolitical changes, domestic policy trends, and industrial hotspots. As the Two Sessions approach, there may be a risk of a pullback [3][4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set according to 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, and 221 points/294 points respectively [5]. - Trend strategy: Adopt a bullish approach. The core operating ranges of IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 are 4511 - 4720 points, 2960 - 3097 points, 7793 - 8402 points, and 7711 - 8310 points respectively [5]. - Cross - variety strategy: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [6]. Spot Market Review - Last week's global stock index performance: In the US, the Dow Jones Index rose 0.25%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.07%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 1.51%. In Europe, the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 2.3%, the German DAX Index rose 1.39%, and the French CAC40 Index rose 2.45%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.2%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 0.58% [10]. - Index performance since 2025 and before the holiday: Most major domestic indexes rose, and different indexes in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 had different levels of increase or decrease [12][13]. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Before the holiday, the IM futures contract had the largest increase, and the IC futures contract had the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [14]. Index Valuation Tracking - As of February 13, the P/E ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 16.97 times, 14.05 times, 11.54 times, 37.81 times, and 50.61 times respectively [15][17]. Market Capital Flow Review - The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - focused funds are provided. The funding rate dropped last week, and the central bank had a net injection [17][18].