黑色建材日报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to focus on the recovery intensity of plate demand, the policy trends of the Two Sessions, and whether there are marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies. In the short term, the black series is likely to continue the weak - range oscillation pattern, and the trend opportunity is not clear [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity bulls. The short - term market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle, suppressing the overall atmosphere [8][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) 3.1.1 Market Quotes - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3055 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.163%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 19,597 tons, a net increase of 2,694 tons. The main contract position was 1.9424 million lots, a net decrease of 87,095 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3222 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.124%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 332,840 tons, a net increase of 34,986 tons. The main contract position was 1.4822 million lots, a net decrease of 51,469 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - Before the Spring Festival, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was cautious, and the prices of finished products continued to oscillate in the bottom range. Overseas policy uncertainties increased, and the market risk appetite declined, disturbing commodity prices. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to focus on the recovery intensity of plate demand, the policy trends of the Two Sessions, and whether there are marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies. In the short term, the black series is likely to continue the weak - range oscillation pattern [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Quotes - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 746.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.10% (- 16.00). The position change was - 3368 lots, changing to 494,600 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 866,600 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.24 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.01% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - In terms of supply, after the weather disturbance in Australia during the Spring Festival was eliminated, overseas ore shipments returned to the high level of the same period. The shipments from Australia increased significantly, and those from Brazil increased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries rebounded month - on - month. The near - end arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output according to the Steel Union's data before the festival increased to 230,490 tons. The resumption of blast furnaces was mainly due to the planned resumption after the previous blast furnace overhauls, and some blast furnaces in certain regions started annual overhauls. The profitability rate of steel mills declined slightly. During the holiday, the production activities of domestic steel mills were carried out normally and smoothly, and the daily average pig iron output was expected to increase slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory before the festival was at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, and the inventory was transferred to the factory faster, driving the high increase in the port clearance volume and the month - on - month decline in port inventory. Overall, after the end of the weather impact, overseas supply recovered, and the high inventory suppressed the price increase. The structural factors need to be resolved, and the price will mainly oscillate. After the festival, it is necessary to pay attention to the start - up situation of domestic terminal demand and the policy guidance of important meetings in March [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon 3.3.1 Market Quotes - On February 13, the last day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.52%, at 5770 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5870 yuan/ton on the disk, with a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the disk. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.15%, at 5492 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 208 yuan/ton over the disk. In the last week before the Spring Festival, the manganese silicon disk price showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with a week - on - week decline of 84 yuan/ton or - 1.43%. The ferrosilicon disk price also showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with a week - on - week decline of 144 yuan/ton or - 2.55% [7]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity bulls. The short - term market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle, suppressing the overall atmosphere. In terms of the fundamentals of the varieties themselves, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors have mostly been factored into the price and are not the main contradictions leading the future market. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, with some improvement due to the overhaul and production conversion of some factories. The main contradictions leading the market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the future are, on the one hand, the direction guidance of the black sector or the influence of the overall market sentiment; on the other hand, the cost - pushing problem caused by manganese ore on the manganese silicon side and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) problem caused by losses or "dual - carbon" on the ferrosilicon side. It is recommended to pay close attention to whether there are sudden situations in the manganese ore end (such as possible restrictive measures on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon) and their possible strong driving force on the market. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy and its possible impact on the supply of ferroalloys [8][9]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke 3.4.1 Market Quotes - On February 13, the last day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.09%, at 1121.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1547.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1356.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 235.5 yuan/ton over the main contract. The quoted price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1253 yuan/ton, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton. The quoted price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1202 yuan/ton, with a premium of 81 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 1.08%, at 1682.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 43.5 yuan/ton over the main contract. The quoted price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1766 yuan/ton, with a premium of 84 yuan/ton over the main contract [11]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke weakened. On the one hand, as the Spring Festival approached, the downstream terminal replenishment ended, leading to a decline in relevant demand and restricting prices. On the other hand, the market still lacked confidence in the downstream steel terminal demand after the festival, and some long - position funds "fled" due to the need for position - closing and risk - avoidance before the festival, driving the price down. In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity bulls. The short - term market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle, suppressing the overall atmosphere. During the Spring Festival, the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation increased, and the large - scale military deployment of the US in the Middle East led to a significant rebound in crude oil and precious metal prices. The rise in energy prices may have a certain positive impact on coal prices. In terms of the variety itself, the short - term upward catalysis of coking coal prices is not strong. On the one hand, the fundamental support is not sufficient. The current structure of coking coal is relatively balanced, and the downstream terminal consumption performance has not shown obvious improvement or the expectation of improvement. The low disk profit limits the transmission of upstream price increases to the downstream. On the other hand, the market sentiment does not provide sufficient environmental support, making it difficult to form a resonant bull market and attract more speculative funds to push up the price. In addition, after the Spring Festival, it will soon enter March, when coal mines will start to resume production, which will be the month with the highest coal output in the whole year. With the end of the heating season (weakening coal demand) and the gradual rise of hydropower (increasing alternative supply of thermal power), historically, March - May is the period when coking coal prices are most likely to experience a callback. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a phased price callback, unless there are sudden situations on the supply side. Although the short - term catalysis of coking coal is not strong, it is still expected to have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, but the time node is more likely to be between June and October, when factors such as the safety production month and the consumption peak season are superimposed, rather than the present [13][14][15]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.5.1 Market Quotes - Industrial Silicon: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of industrial silicon futures (SI2605) closed at 8395 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.72% (+ 60). The weighted contract position changed by - 30,277 lots, changing to 386,817 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of non - oxygen - passing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 805 yuan/ton. The quoted price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. After converting to the disk price, the basis of the main contract was 455 yuan/ton [17]. - Polysilicon: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of polysilicon futures (PS2605) closed at 49305 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.59% (+ 290). The weighted contract position changed by - 1175 lots, changing to 63,145 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type dense material was 52.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 3945 yuan/ton [19]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - Industrial Silicon: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, industrial silicon oscillated and rebounded. From the perspective of the disk trend, the price was weak. On the supply side, in February, a large factory in the northwest of the industrial silicon industry shut down half of its production, and all production enterprises in Sichuan Province stopped production. The industry's operating rate declined under price pressure, and the supply side continued to contract. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in February declined. A leading enterprise had gradually shut down all its bases in January and maintained the shutdown in February. The operating rates of organic silicon and silicon - aluminum alloy were weakly stable, and the overall demand for industrial silicon weakened. Currently, the production contraction elasticity in the southwest region is significantly smaller than the expansion elasticity. The price support depends on the cost and the production - reduction intensity of northwest enterprises. If the large northwest factories resume production as planned in March, the price is expected to remain weak. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the external impact of the coking coal trend on industrial silicon. Overall, the price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak. After the festival, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there are unexpected changes in the production of upstream and downstream enterprises [18]. - Polysilicon: In terms of supply and demand, a leading enterprise maintained a full - scale shutdown in February, and the supply continued to decrease. The production schedule of silicon wafers is expected to remain stable, and the supply - demand situation will improve marginally. The high inventory in the silicon material sector is expected to be slightly reduced. The prices of battery cells and components have increased due to pre - festival policies and cost promotion, but the silicon wafer sector is still in a state of low prices and high inventory. Therefore, the positive feedback from the real - world end to the silicon material sector is not smooth. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can strengthen after the festival and be transmitted to the upstream. In terms of policy expectations, it is expected that anti - involution will continue to support the price, and the full cost below can be used as a reference for price support. At the same time, the anti - monopoly red line will be strengthened in legal operation. In terms of the disk, the position and liquidity of polysilicon futures have both declined to a relatively low level since listing, and the disk is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the post - festival demand feedback and spot prices [20][21]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Quotes - Glass: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.25% (- 24). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1030 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On February 12, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 55.352 million cases, a month - on - month increase of 2.288 million cases (+ 4.31%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,494 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 11,965 lots [23]. - Soda Ash: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.03% (- 12). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1100 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On February 12, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.588 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0069 million tons (+ 4.31%), of which the