Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to continued tight copper ore supply, relatively surplus refined copper supply under high domestic smelting start - up rate and downstream consumption off - season, and emotional support from strong precious metal prices [4][5] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the short - term despite large inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and high delivery pressure on near - month futures contracts, as LME inventory remains at a relatively low level and there are still supports from the industry [6][7] - Lead prices may be supported in the short - term by the expected strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises, but the post - holiday start - up of downstream battery enterprises needs to be observed [9][10] - Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices based on relative valuation in the short - term due to macro - emotional disturbances, but will likely return to the weak industrial reality after the macro disturbances subside [11][12][13] - Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation in the short - term, with a long - term upward trend, but there is pressure for a sharp rise under the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory [14][15] - Nickel prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation with the center gradually rising, with a long - term bullish and short - term bearish outlook [16][17] - The short - term supply - demand tight situation of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue, and the upstream may have more say in the post - holiday spot game [20][21] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the future price trend depends on whether the disturbances in the Guinea ore end can materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated [23][24] - Stainless steel prices are still bullish, with a strong cost support at the bottom and the supply pressure expected to ease after the holiday [26][27] - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term due to cost support, improved demand expectations after the holiday, and supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29][30] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market Information: During the Spring Festival, the US Supreme Court ruled that US tariffs based on IEEPA were illegal, but new tariffs added uncertainty. Precious metal prices rebounded, and copper prices fluctuated. As of February 23, LME 3M copper rose slightly by 0.05% to $12,901/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. Overseas copper inventories continued to increase, and the discount of LME near - month contracts narrowed. Satellite data showed that global smelting activities in January were at the lowest level for the same period in a decade. Domestically, the operating rate of primary processing enterprises weakened before the holiday, and inventories increased seasonally but less than the seasonal average [4] - Strategy: Short - term copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract today is 99,500 - 101,500 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is $12,800 - 13,050/ton [5] Aluminum - Market Information: During the Spring Festival, geopolitical risks from US - Iran negotiations remained. The US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs based on IEEPA were illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff on global goods. Aluminum prices fluctuated and recovered. As of February 23, LME 3M aluminum rose 0.9% to $3,091/ton. Before the holiday, domestic aluminum futures positions decreased, and warehouse receipts increased. LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 47.4 tons, and the discount of Cash/3M narrowed [6] - Strategy: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to rise. The reference range for the main SHFE aluminum contract today is 23,000 - 23,600 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is $3,050 - 3,120/ton [7] Lead - Market Information: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic SHFE lead index fell 1.39% to 16,700 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME 3M lead fell 0.51% to $1,966.5/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 5.42 tons to 28.71 tons. Domestic lead inventory also increased [9] - Strategy: The expected strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support lead prices in the short - term, but the post - holiday start - up of downstream battery enterprises needs to be observed [10] Zinc - Market Information: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic SHFE zinc index fell 5.53% to 24,255 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME 3M zinc rose 0.76% to $3,378/ton. LME zinc inventory was 10.17 tons, and domestic zinc inventory increased [11] - Strategy: Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices in the short - term due to macro - emotional disturbances but will return to the weak industrial reality later [12][13] Tin - Market Information: On February 13, tin prices fell sharply. The supply was difficult to increase significantly in the short - term due to the high - level stability of the operating rate in Yunnan and low production in Jiangxi. The demand was still weak as downstream enterprises were cautious [14] - Strategy: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME tin is $46,000 - 50,000/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [15] Nickel - Market Information: On February 13, nickel prices fell sharply. The spot market premiums were stable, and raw material prices were also stable. During the Spring Festival, LME 3M nickel rose 1.1% to $17,435/ton, and LME inventory was basically unchanged [16] - Strategy: Nickel prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation with the center gradually rising. It is recommended to buy low and sell high. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M nickel is $16,000 - 20,000/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: On February 14, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 5.11% week - on - week. The LC2605 contract price rose 2.15% on February 13, and the Australian import SC6 lithium concentrate price rose 2.82% week - on - week [20] - Strategy: The short - term supply - demand tight situation of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue. The reference range for the main contract on the GZFE is 139,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - Market Information: On February 13, the alumina index rose 1.1% to 2,843 yuan/ton. The trading position decreased, and the basis and overseas prices were stable. The futures inventory increased [23] - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [24] Stainless Steel - Market Information: On February 13, the stainless steel main contract fell 0.79% to 13,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices were stable, raw material prices were unchanged, and futures and social inventories increased [26] - Strategy: Stainless steel prices are still bullish. The reference range for the main contract is 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton [27] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Before the Spring Festival, the casting aluminum alloy price weakened. The trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The inventory increased [29] - Strategy: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [30]
有色金属日报-20260224
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-24 02:45