供强需弱格局延续，期价震荡寻方向

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the pre - and post - holiday situation of the pig futures and spot markets, analyzing the price trends, supply - demand relationship, and providing corresponding operation strategies [5][7][8] Group 2: Market Performance Futures Price - Before the holiday week, the pig futures market fluctuated weakly. As of February 13, the main LH2605 contract was reported at 11,500 yuan/ton, down 0.22%, with a trading volume of 38,318 lots, an open interest of 136,660 lots, and a daily decrease of 4,468 lots [5][13] Spot Price - Before the holiday week, the pig price continued to decline. As of February 13, the national average pig slaughter price was 11.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the beginning of the week, a decline of 3.9% [7][16] - Due to high pre - holiday piglet prices and low market acceptance, the piglet price decreased before the holiday, with a national average weekly price of 357.14 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/head compared to the previous period [18] - The market for 50 - kg binary sows was inactive, with an average price of 1,429 yuan/head, and the enthusiasm for replenishment by reserve farmers was low [21] - The price of culled sows decreased with the decline of pig prices, with a national average price of 8.85 yuan/kg, a decrease of 4.12% [23] Spread Situation - The basis between the pig futures and the spot market narrowed. As of February 13, the basis was 930 yuan/ton [27] - The standard - fat spread was - 1.11 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg from the beginning of the week [29] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - In January, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale sample farms increased by 0.02% month - on - month and decreased by 0.41% year - on - year; in small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 0.36% month - on - month and 1.82% year - on - year [32] - The inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale sample farms in January was 36.6634 billion, a decrease of 0.70% month - on - month and an increase of 4.24% year - on - year; in small and medium - sized sample enterprises, it was 1.5556 billion, a decrease of 0.02% month - on - month and an increase of 8.59% year - on - year [40] - In January, the proportion of piglets weighing 7 - 49 kg was 32.86%, 50 - 89 kg was 28.99%, 90 - 140 kg was 36.62%, and over 140 kg was 1.53%, with month - on - month changes of - 0.33%, - 0.13%, 0.34%, and 1.43% respectively [46] - In January, the slaughter volume of large - scale sample farms was 11.3979 billion, a decrease of 3.27% month - on - month and an increase of 10.7% year - on - year; in small and medium - sized sample farms, it was 544.1 million, a decrease of 0.71% month - on - month and an increase of 11.02% year - on - year [50] - As of February 10, the overall slaughter progress of sample enterprises was 54.27%, with the slaughter advancing before the holiday and the enterprises actively adjusting the slaughter rhythm due to weak post - holiday expectations [53][55] Demand Side - Before the holiday week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 45.97%, an increase of 7.48% month - on - month, supported by pre - holiday stocking demand [59] - Before the holiday, the fresh sales rate of slaughtering enterprises was 88.55%, an increase of 0.37% month - on - month, and the frozen - product storage rate was 17%, unchanged from the previous period [63] Cost - profit Situation - Before the holiday, the pig - breeding profit fluctuated around the break - even point. As of February 13, the self - breeding and self - raising model had an average loss of 62.32 yuan per head, while the model of purchasing piglets had an average profit of 22.3 yuan per head [69] Group 4: Market Outlook - After the holiday, the market will enter the traditional off - season for consumption. The market will continue to have a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the pig price will face downward pressure in the short term [8][70] - In the medium term, attention should be paid to the post - holiday slaughter rhythm, piglet replenishment sentiment, and the culling progress of breeding sows. After the second quarter, the pig price is expected to recover [8][70] Group 5: Operation Strategies - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [9][71] - For arbitrage, the near - term contracts are under pressure from the abundant post - holiday supply and still have room to decline in the short term; the far - term contracts are less affected by the spot pressure and have relatively strong support [9][71] - For options, no operation is recommended [9][71]