华龙期货铁矿周报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract fell 2.48%. During the long - holiday, the iron ore spot market was quiet, with few inquiries, quotes, and transactions. The Singapore iron ore swap declined slightly. It's expected that post - holiday restocking demand from steel mills will be low, providing limited support to the market. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - From February 16th to 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.31 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.133 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.984 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 21.524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.656 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.277 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.033 million tons [4][30][31]. 3.2 Market Outlook - After the holiday, it's expected that steel mills' restocking demand will be low, offering limited support to the futures market. It is advised to stay on the sidelines [5][32]. 3.3 Operation Strategy - For single - side trading, arbitrage, and options trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6][33]. 3.4 Important Market Information - On February 16th, President Xi Jinping's article emphasized that in 2026, economic work should focus on key points, adhere to domestic - demand leadership, and build a strong domestic market. - On February 18th, Fortescue applied to the Western Australian EPA to build a 12 - million - ton - per - year Wyloo North iron ore project in the Pilbara region. - On February 21st, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% ad - valorem import tariff on imported goods starting from February 24th, which was later raised to 15%. Trump also claimed that the US trade deficit had decreased by 78% [13][14]. 3.5 Supply - Side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 119.65 million tons, an increase of 9.11 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.16 per ton, a decrease of $0.33 from the previous month. - As of January 2026, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 61.112 million tons, a decrease of 10.281 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's shipment volume was 18.891 million tons, a decrease of 8.744 million tons from the first half of the month [17][21]. 3.6 Demand - Side Situation - The report mentions data sources for 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, 247 steel mills' profitability rate, and Shanghai's terminal wire - rod procurement volume, but no specific data is provided [23][24][27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - From February 16th to 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.31 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.133 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.984 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.211 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.746 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 21.524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.656 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.277 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.033 million tons. - Rio Tinto expects the unit cash cost (FOB basis) of Pilbara iron ore in 2026 to be between $23.5 and $25 per wet ton. - By the end of 2025, over 80% of China's crude steel production capacity achieved ultra - low emissions. The energy consumption of blast furnaces and converters in 143 enterprises decreased by 2.5% and 12.2% respectively compared to 2023, saving 13.2 million tons of standard coal and reducing 34 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [30][31].